Talk Money with Tony Field – September 11, 2015

  • 11/09/2015
Rates are being cut because inflation remains surprisingly low (file)
Rates are being cut because inflation remains surprisingly low (file)

If you have a mortgage, you are likely to be pleased by the lowering of interest rates. The same goes for farmers and anyone else running a business.

But anyone with a term deposit may not be so thrilled. That includes many retirees trying to supplement their pension and young people saving for their OE.

The reason that rates are being cut is not cause for a celebration. The economy is slowing. Earlier this year the growth projections were sitting at 3 percent. Now they are around 2 percent.

Rates are also being cut because inflation remains surprisingly low. It is around 1 percent right now, well below the 2 percent midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target range.

For these reasons, the decision to cut the official cash rate by 0.25 percent to 2.75 percent was widely expected.

RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said a further cut to the OCR "seems likely". But it will depend on future economic data. It does look like the RBNZ is anticipating one more cut of 0.25 percent, which would take the OCR back to its previous low of 2.5 percent.

The 'R' word was mentioned by Graeme Wheeler yesterday. He said a recession was a possibility if China's slowdown was worse than expected or if the El Nino weather patterns brought a sustained drought.

But those comments must be put in perspective.

The Reserve Bank models what it calls "downside risk" scenarios. The modelling for a worst case scenario is not what the RBNZ thinks will happen.

The RBNZ lifted the OCR by 1 percent over the first half of the year. It peaked at 3.5 percent in July 2014.

Now, three quarters of the increase have been reversed. We are now back to where we were in March 2014. That was the month the Reserve Bank lifted the OCR from 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent.

The period when the OCR reached 3.5 percent was also the time when the New Zealand dollar hit 88 US cents.

It is now trading at just under 63 cents. That is a level last seen in 2009 (save for the "flash crash" of last month when the Kiwi lost several cents within minutes and then recovered much of the lost ground).

The Kiwi lost around one cent after yesterday's OCR announcement, falling to 62.93 cents at 9.45am, compared to 63.94 cents before the announcement. This morning it is trading a little bit higher at 63.04 cents.

The NZ dollar has slipped to 89.08 Australian cents, compared to 91.08 yesterday before the OCR announcement.

The kiwi is trading at 40.83 pence, down 1.95 percent from yesterday. It is 76.10 yen, compared to 77.10 yen yesterday. The dollar is trading at 55.94 euro cents, down from 57.10 a day ago.

The Reserve Bank said yesterday it has been talking with more than twenty organisations connected with the agricultural sector and another 30 firms from other industries.

It was trying to get a better idea of how low dairy prices will affect farmers, rural communities and the wider economy.

The RBNZ says the agriculture sector accounts for 5 percent of New Zealand's GDP, with primary food manufacturing accounting for an additional 4 percent of GDP.

Dairy prices have fallen 55 percent from February 2014.

The bank was told that to "manage reduced cash flow, farmers have been increasing overdraft use, and are using deferred terms and interest-free loans where possible".

It says some farmers have sold Fonterra shares to free up cash. Many are likely to take up the Fonterra co-operative interest-free loan.

"The ability of farmers to take on new debt depends on banks' willingness to lend, and an individual farmer's financial situation."

The Reserve Bank said there is a typical sequence of responses to lower cash flow.

The RBNZ says the feedback from the agricultural sector is that confidence in different areas of agriculture production tends to move in sync with confidence in the dairy industry.

That is because sheep and beef farmers supply feed and grazing land to dairy farmers. Many of those farmers have also invested in dairy farms.

The falling dollar may offset some of the fall in the international dairy prices.

The bank notes that rural suppliers may also reduce prices if there is weaker demand for their products.

Graeme Wheeler also warned that "house prices in Auckland continue to increase rapidly and are becoming more unsustainable".

His comments were made just a couple of hours before the release of the latest house price numbers were released by the Real Estate Institute.

The median Auckland price was $740,000 last month. That is an increase of 20.5 percent from $125,950 from August of last year.

There were 7,766 dwellings sold last month in Auckland, up 41.7 percent on August 2014, but down 4.4 percent from July of this year. The Institute says it was the highest volume of sales for Auckland for any August since 2003.

Factors like the weather can have an impact on the month to month prices and volumes. But anecdotally I am hearing of people not getting the price they were expecting and of some properties not being sold at auction.

The nationwide median price was $465,000. That was steady from July. But it was an increase of $45,000, or 10.7 percent, from a year ago.

Wall Street finished in positive territory, with Apple reversing yesterday's losses.

Apple gained 2.4 percent, after losing 1.9 percent yesterday following its product launch.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.47 percent, about 80 points higher. At one point it was up 188 points.

The S&P500 gained 0.53 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.84 percent.

European markets were down, with Germany's DAX losing 0.9 percent, France's CAC 40 down 1.46 percent and the UK FTSE down 1.18 percent.

The markets are likely to remain volatile ahead of next week's decision by the Federal Reserve on whether to hike interest rates form the near zero level they have been at since the global financial crisis.

West Texas crude oil rose 4 percent, or $1.77, to US45.92 a barrel. That reversed yesterday's decline of 3.9 percent.

European Brent rose 2.4 percent to US$48.72.

Gold is up 0.69 percent, or US$7.60, to US1109 per ounce.

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