Newshub-Reid Research poll: Jacinda Ardern brings Labour back

The Labour Party is celebrating an explosive boost in support - and it's all down to the "Ardern Effect".

In the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll Labour has jumped 9 points up to 33.1 percent.

This is the party's highest percentage in our polling since January 2014 when it was 33.5 percent.

But it doesn't appear to have had much effect on National's numbers - they're down 0.8 to 44.4 percent.

Significantly though, this is National's lowest percentage in more than 10 years. It was only lower in March 2007 when they achieved 42 percent, just after John Key took over as leader.

The poll was conducted from August 2-8; the first day of polling was Jacinda Ardern's first official day in the Labour leadership job.

Newshub-Reid Research poll: Jacinda Ardern brings Labour back
Photo credit: Newshub-Reid Research

Ms Ardern called the poll result "heartening" but said "we're not going to be resting on our laurels from this, absolutely not".

"We do have some way to go, obviously. The election is all about being in a position to make change and we’re still a way off that."  

The increase in Labour's numbers has come largely from the Greens, who have crashed down 4.7 points to 8.3. It's also come from New Zealand First - down 3.8 points to 9.2 percent. NZ First had a historic high in the last Newshub-Reid Research poll.

Prime Minister Bill English said Labour and the Greens were "joined at the hip" and simply "swapping votes between them".

He said it was "pretty logical" that there would be a lift for the new Labour leader - but National remained focussed on "getting our support high enough to have a good government after September 23".

Based on the poll numbers, National would get 55 seats in Parliament and Labour would have 41.

To govern, either side needs 61 seats. National wouldn't be able to get there with its current support partners and would need NZ First's 11 seats.

Labour would also need NZ First, as adding the Greens' 10 seats would only get them to 51.

Fears Andrew Little would not make it back into Parliament have been dampened significantly with this result - in fact it would see a huge influx of new Labour faces into Parliament.

Labour currently has 31 MPs in Parliament - however three will not be contesting this election. That means, based on this poll, Labour would get 13 fresh faces in, including Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Willow-Jean Prime, Kiri Allan, Greg O'Connor, Tamati Coffey and Willie Jackson.

Newshub.

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