Housing price boom over - for now
The Auckland housing market is a "Rubik's cube" that will remain unaffordable for most until there's a coordinated effort to fix it, according to one expert.
Since the 2014 election, prices in the biggest city have gone up an average of $250,000 - four times the national average capital gain of $65,000.
Leonie Freeman, who's worked in the property industry for decades and set up New Zealand's first real estate website, says no price crash is in sight.
"Housing has always followed a cyclical nature, and what we're seeing at the moment is perhaps the end of, or perhaps getting towards the end of the latest cycle," she told The AM Show on Thursday.
"When you look back in the past, the markets turn usually because of some global event. Last time it was the global financial crisis, and then that impacts the property market. So we do think at some point that will happen."
But that's unlikely under the current regime, she says.
"There's just not one idea or solution that's going to fix it. I often liken the property to a Rubik's cube - you've got to get everything all aligned to make things happen. We need to deal with land supply, we need to deal with construction costs, we need to deal with supply.
"What we have is everybody working in silos. There's no coordinated effort."
Without a massive shock like the global financial crisis or a proper effort to bring prices down, Ms Freeman says house values are unlikely to drop before they start rising again.
"What you typically see is when the market turns, the market does soften. You see sometimes that the prices might go down slightly, but we haven't seen great crashes. What you see is people who own a house just hunker down - if they don't have to sell, they just hunker down."
Neither Labour nor National have proposed a capital gains tax. Labour wants a crackdown on tax loopholes and foreign buyers, as well as a "speculator tax".