There are two big economic reports due next week in the run-up to the general election and economists aren’t expecting them to be game-changers.
June quarter Balance of Payments and GDP figures are released at 10.45am on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
ASB is predicting Q2 GDP growth of just 0.6 percent, which if correct, will be the third consecutive undershoot of RBNZ forecasts.
“Our Q2 pick is surprising given the Lions Tour boost and in light of robust levels of confidence, near-record highs for the terms of trade, low interest rates and strong population growth.
“However, capacity constraints and headwinds from the slowing housing market are proving to be influential,” ASB says.
ANZ is predicting GDP growth of 0.7 percent in the second quarter. That would see annual growth hold steady at 2.5 percent.
It’ll be a somewhat of a “middling” result as it is only a modest rebound from soft late-2016, early-2017 growth.
BNZ is predicting Q2 GDP at 0.9 percent for an annual figure of 2.6 percent, in line with RBNZ and Treasury expectations.
Balance of payments figures are expected to show a reduction in the seasonally adjusted current account deficit, with the annual deficit narrowing to 3 percent of GDP.