What the Mana-Maori deal would've meant in the 2014 election

If the nationwide electorate deal between the Mana and Maori Parties was in place at the last election, Parliament might look a bit different today.

Putting aside the Internet-Mana party vote and looking solely at the electorate votes in each of the seven Maori seats, Labour would've been in more trouble. In that election, Labour suffered their heaviest defeat since 1922, with just 25.13 percent of the total party vote.

Combining the Mana and Maori electorate votes, Labour wouldn't have won three seats: Te Tai Tokerau, Tamaki Makaurau, and Te Tai Hauauru.

Tamaki Makaurau's Peeni Henare and Te Tai Hauauru's Adrian Rurawhe wouldn't be MPs, as they're electorate-only candidates and not on Labour's list.

Given Labour's party vote, Te Tai Tokerau's Kelvin Davis would have only just scraped in on the list behind Maryan Street (15th) and Moana Mackey (17th), with his 2014 ranking of 18th.

Here's how it might have played out in the seven Maori electorates:

What the Mana-Maori deal would've meant in the 2014 election

Labour's Hauraki-Waikato MP Nanaia Mahuta would've easily retained her seat, although her margin would've decreased from 7695 to 1836.

Maori Party co-leader Marama Fox wouldn't have edged out Labour's Meka Whaitiri in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, but she would've reduced the winning margin from 4673 to 825.

On the other hand, her fellow co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell would have extended his lead significantly in Waiariki, going from 9726 to 15,208. That's a winning margin of 9371.

In Te Tai Tonga, Rino Tirikatene would have held the seat over the Maori Party's Ngaire Button.

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