Lloyd Burr: The real Labour list

OPINION: Labour's list hasn't been without controversy - and it's also not an accurate reflection of who will represent the party in Parliament after the election.

Here we present an alternative list ranking based on the likelihood of electorate MPs - some of whom are not on Labour's official list - to win their seats.

Based on his revised placing and Newshub's last Reid Research poll, Labour's most experienced MP and strategist Trevor Mallard will not be re-elected.

Mr Mallard was an electorate-only candidate at the 2014 election, but this time around he's ditching his Hutt South electorate and opting to solely be a list-only candidate.

List candidates top up a party's electorate seats so their number of MPs in Parliament matches the overall party vote percentage.

While Mr Mallard is at number 32 on Labour's 2017 election list, when you take into account those ahead of him as well as non-list candidates who will likely win electorate seats, his actual ranking is effectively number 40.

The Newshub Reid Research poll from March this year predicts Labour winning 38 seats - that means Mr Mallard will need to look for a new job.

This prediction is based on the assumption Labour will win all of its current electorate seats.

Mr Mallard will still miss out even if former Police Association boss Greg O'Connor doesn't win the battleground seat of Ohariu for Labour.

The only way he'll make it in is if Labour loses two of: its six Maori seats, Rongotai, or Ohariu.

The real Labour list

ELECTORATE MPs LIKELY TO WIN SEATS (actual list placing in brackets)

  1. Jacinda Ardern (2)
  2. Grant Robertson (3)
  3. Phil Twyford (4)
  4. Megan Woods (5)
  5. Chris Hipkins (6)
  6. Carmel Sepuloni (7)
  7. David Clark (8)
  8. Stuart Nash (10)
  9. Iain Lees-Galloway (13)
  10. Aupito William Sio (15)
  11. Damien O'Connor (17)
  12. Jenny Salesa (18)
  13. Kris Faafoi (19)
  14. Clare Curran (22)
  15. Ruth Dyson (23)
  16. Poto Williams (24)
  17. Louisa Wall (25)
  18. Michael Wood (26)
  19. Deborah Russell (29)
  20. Paul Eagle (33)
  21. Kelvin Davis (non-list) NB: battleground - Te Tai Tokerau
  22. Peeni Henare (non-list)
  23. Nanaia Mahuta (non-list) NB: battleground - Hauraki-Waikato
  24. Meka Whaitiri (non-list)
  25. Adrian Rurawhe (non-list)
  26. Rino Tirikatene (non-list)
  27. Ginny Andersen (27) NB: battleground - Hutt South
  28. Greg O'Connor (40) NB: battleground - Ohariu

LIST MPS TO TOP-UP BASED ON PARTY VOTE

29. Andrew Little (1)

30. David Parker (9)

31. Priyanca Radhakrishnan (11)

32. Raymond Huo (12)

33. Jan Tinetti (14)

34. Willow-Jean Prime (16)

35. Kiri Allan (20)

36. Willie Jackson (21)

37. Jo Luxton (28)

38. Liz Craig (30)

UNLIKELY TO GET IN BASED ON NEWSHUB REID RESEARCH POLLING

39. Marja Lubeck (31)

40. Trevor Mallard (32)

41. Tamati Coffey (34)

42. Jamie Strange (35)

Lloyd Burr is a Newshub political reporter.

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