UPDATE: Due to a clarification from the NBL, it turns out my interpretation of the tiebreaker situation was incorrect. That in turn screwed up a whole lot of scenarios. Apologies, though I stand by my reading of the rules which resulted in a hasty update from the NBL. All figures and the table have now been updated.
Breakers fans, strap yourself in for the most nerve wracking and potentially confusing weekend of the NBL you’ve ever seen. For the final round of the season, maths skills will be just as important as picking, rolling and working the triangle.
The Breakers close out the regular season against Melbourne United at the NSEC, the second of six games that make up Round 19. From those six games, there are a whopping 64 different combinations of different outcomes. The big question is how many of those end with the Breakers in the playoffs?
First, some background. With one round to play only the Adelaide 36ers are locked in for the finals and the Brisbane Bullets will hang up the hightops after this weekend. The other six teams are in a dogfight for the three remaining playoff spots.
This is the current state of the league and the schedule for the final round starting Thursday:
With the table so tight, here’s a quick refresher on league rules. If two or more teams are level on wins at the end of the season, the season series between those teams acts as the tiebreakers. That is then repeated if teams are still tied. If they’re still level after that, points differential from those head to head games is taken into consideration. If they’re still level after that (highly unlikely), points percentage for the entire season (points for divided by points against) comes into play.
Of the other five teams gunning for the finals the Breakers only hold the head to head advantage over the Wildcats, and have a couple of hefty points differentials against them from the Cairns and Sydney series'.
So, what needs to happen for the Breakers to make the playoffs?
Most importantly, the Breakers must beat Melbourne on Friday. Lose and the rest is redundant. And beyond beating Melbourne, a playoff run is completely out of the Breakers hands. All they can do is sit back and watch how the other games pan out.
While there are still so many different factors still unknown like season series and points differential still to be finalised - here's how I read it.
The Breakers have an 21.875% chance of reaching the playoffs. Of the 64 outcomes, 14 of them end with the Breakers in the top 4. With an upset or two, they could even climb as high as second and secure home court for the semis.
It gets better. If Adelaide beat Cairns in the opening game of the round (as the minor premiers should) and the Breakers then beat Melbourne (which they have to), suddenly there’s a 56.25% chance (9 of 16 remaining outcomes) of going to the finals.
An ideal world would see Adelaide beat Cairns, Breakers beat Melbourne (obviously), Perth beat Sydney, Brisbane beat Illawarra (upset alert) and Adelaide beat Cairns again. That would lock in a playoff spot with a game to spare, but if Melbourne did knock over Perth in the final game then the Breakers would go up to second.
Don’t believe me? I don’t blame you. But after far too much time buried in various spreadsheets (twice even, thanks to the vague rules), here’s the results of how the season can play out for the Breakers.
Newshub.
