Days out from the Northland by-election, the race is still looking too close to call.
Labour leader Andrew Little has even given up using coded phrases like "send a message", admitting it's a two-horse race between Winston Peters and National's Mark Osborne.
"I was up there last weekend – I have to say I think this is going to be a very, very tight race. It will come down to the two front-runners – Winston Peters and Mark Osborne," he said on Firstline this morning.
"Very hard to call, and I think Saturday's going to be a fascinating night."
- READ MORE: Full coverage of the Northland by-election
Otago University politics lecturer Bryce Edwards says whoever wins, National's coming out of it with a bloody nose.
"[Mr Peters has] won over the hearts and minds, he's really won lots of people over.
"But in the end, National's pulled out all the stops. They've got everyone up there campaigning; they've got a big machine, a big party machine out in Northland at the moment, making sure that anyone that might possibly vote for National will actually do so… the power of the National Party machine versus Winston Peters' charisma, it's going to be quite close."
The fear for the left is that it's so close, voters who don't get the message – or can't bring themselves to vote for Mr Peters – might ensure Mr Osborne a victory. Labour hasn't pulled its candidate Willow-Jean Prime.
"It could still be very embarrassing if they manage to get 1000 votes or thereabouts and Winston Peters loses by 500 votes," says Dr Edwards.
"That will put a lot of pressure on Andrew Little and Willow-Jean Prime because they'll be seen as responsible for handing this seat back to National. It will be a bloody nose for Labour as well – or egg on their face."
Whatever the outcome, Dr Edwards says it's been one of the strangest by-elections in a long time because no one has been allowed to publicly discuss the very reason Northland is going to the polls in the first place.
"No one really knows – or at least the public doesn't seem to know – what happened with [former Northland MP] Mike Sabin. It put National on the back foot. It's been the platform for quite a bad campaign by National, and the selection of a candidate who hasn't really seemed to be the optimal person for this by-election.
"Then with Winston Peters coming in, it's just turned it into more a circus than it would have been otherwise."
3 News
source: newshub archive
