One of the Māori Party's co-leaders could be facing life outside Parliament after September's election, according to the results of a new Reid Research poll released by Māori TV.
The Labour Party is holding strong in two of three Māori electorates in polling released today - results that could be devastating for the Māori Party's co-leaders Marama Fox and Te Ururoa Flavell. Polling of the remaining four Māori electorates will be released in the near future.
According to the poll, the Māori Party's Howie Tamati is on track to win Te Tai Hauāuru. At 52 percent of the electorate vote he is polling well ahead of Labour's Adrian Rurawhe, who is on 39 percent.
If Mr Flavell holds his electorate and both enter Parliament, it's possible the party vote won't be high enough to bring in anyone off the list.
That situation could be devastating for Ms Fox. According to the poll, she won't win her electorate seat Ikaroa Rāwhiti. With 39 percent of the electoral vote, Ms Fox is polling well behind Labour's Meka Whaitiri, who is on 55 percent.
If Mr Tamati gets in and Mr Flavell holds on to his electorate seat, unless the party can get a higher party vote, Ms Fox won't make it back into Parliament.
We'll know more tomorrow - the Party is due to release their list on Wednesday. And if only one electorate is won, the list will determine who enters Parliament.
Labour on track to win two of three polled seats
The poll looks at three Māori electorates: Te Tai Hauāuru - which spans the lower west of the North Island; Ikaroa Rāwhiti, which spans the lower East Coast of the North Island; and Te Tai Tonga, which spans the entire South Island all the way from Stewart Island to Wellington City.
The polling has Labour winning Ikaroa Rāwhiti and Te Tai Tonga and losing Te Tai Hauāuru to the Maori Party.
Labour currently holds six of the seven Māori seats, and is aiming to take out all seven this election. The party took its Māori electorate MPs off the party list, meaning if they don't win their electorates, they won't be in Parliament in September - aside from Kelvin Davis, who as Deputy has been moved to second on the list.
Supporters of former Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei who were holding out hope she could win her electorate Te Tai Tonga will be disappointed. Ms Turei wouldn't have expected to win the electorate herself - and it remains a Labour stronghold.
The party vote
Labour takes the lion's share of the party vote across the three electorates, where it's seen a significant boost on 2014 results. Labour would take 41.4 percent of the party vote in Te Tai Hauāuru - up from 35.7 percent in 2014.
The vote is even higher in Te Tai Tonga, at 47.5 percent, and 50.4 percent in Ikaroa Rāwhiti.
The poll was conducted by Reid Research for Māori TV from 11 July to 17 August, ahead of their Māori seats debate between Tai Hauauru and Ikaroa Rāwhiti.