Newshub election poll: Either National, Labour could take power

The final poll is in, and it shows either side could take power on Saturday.

National has dropped back slightly to 45.8 percent. It is still the largest single party, but is teetering in the danger zone.

Labour is back a bit too, sitting on 37.3 percent.

However the major parties' losses are the minor parties' gains.

Newshub election poll: Either National, Labour could take power
Photo credit: Newshub.

The Greens are back to safety. They are on 7.1 percent. In Newshub's last poll they were below the 5 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament without an electorate seat.

NZ First is up to 7.1 percent too.

The crucial number in this poll is the combined Labour-Greens vote. At 44.4 percent, it's oh-so-close to National's 45.8 percent.

That makes Winston Peters crucial to both of them.

The minor parties are more minimal than ever, with The Opportunities Party (TOP) on 0.9 percent, the Māori Party on 0.4 percent and ACT on 0.6 percent.

Despite the Māori Party's bad result, it's expected to win two electorate seats.

How the poll translates to seats in the house

Newshub election poll: Either National, Labour could take power
Photo credit: Newshub.
  • Sixty-two seats would be needed to form a Government.
  • National, with 56, would not get there, even with its current governing partners (ACT and the Māori Party would bring it to 59).
  • Labour and the Greens with 54 seats would also be short.
  • In this scenario, Winston Peters would be kingmaker. His nine seats would be needed to push National or Labour across the line.

What the trends show us

Newshub election poll: Either National, Labour could take power
Photo credit: Newshub.
  • National have been pretty steady, bobbing above and below the 45 percent mark.
  • Labour took off when Jacinda Ardern took over in early August. It just started tapering off when the attacks rose, as did the pressure.
  • The Greens and NZ First were having a field day before the Ardern effect. Then Labour grabbed a whole lot of votes back - and National came in and took a whole lot of New Zealand First to shore up its vote.
  • The absolutely crucial trend here is that while the 'Ardern effect' grabbed back those 'change' votes, Labour has not been that successful in getting centre voters back off National and dragging National down. That could turn out to be where this election is won and lost.

The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted September 13th - 20th, and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

One thousand people were surveyed, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel.

Newshub.

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