The final and most-anticipated Māori electorate poll has been released - Te Tai Tokerau, Aotearoa's northernmost seat.
It's the electorate that could either see Hone Harawira return to Parliament or have him miss out again, and the Reid Research-Māori TV poll is bad news for the MANA Movement candidate.
Mr Harawira is up against Labour deputy leader Kelvin Davis, who, at number two on the party list, looks set to enter Parliament, whether or not he wins the electorate.
The poll has Mr Davis on 67.4 percent, with Mr Harawira on 30.3 percent.
Mr Harawira will no doubt argue the length of the poll means some voters are not captured in the statistics. He may say, since data was collected, some voters will have decided to strategically give Mr Harawira their electoral vote, now that Mr Davis has been bumped up to second on the party list, making him a shoo-in for a seat.
Mr Harawira struck a deal with the Māori Party in the electorate, agreeing to not stand any other MANA candidates in the Māori seats, as long as the Māori Party didn't stand a candidate in Te Tai Tokerau.
The poll was conducted over a two-month period, with a median date of August 12, two weeks after Mr Davis became deputy leader.
One notable trend in this electorate is a huge swing in the party vote, compared to the 2014 election. The MANA Movement has crashed from 16 percent three years ago to 6 percent this time.
Nearly half of those polled plan to vote Labour in 2017, up from 38 percent in 2014. NZ First has also seen a boost - it's on 14 percent in the poll, compared to 8 percent in 2014.
The poll's been released ahead of Māori TV's debate between Mr Davis and Mr Harawira, airing from 8pm today.
It's the final Māori TV-Reid Research poll of the Māori electorates to be released. Its polls have Labour Party candidates ahead in five of the seven electorates, with the Māori Party ahead in the remaining two.
The poll has a margin of error of 4.98 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.