Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell is beating former weather presenter Tamati Coffey in the first public poll of the Waiariki electorate.
The Māori Television-Reid Research poll shows Mr Flavell has 60.1 percent of the vote, and Mr Coffey has 39.9.
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Winning the seat is crucial for the Māori Party as it would secure its future in Parliament.
And in the Hauraki-Waikato seat, Labour's Nanaia Mahuta has a strong lead over the Māori Party's Rahui Papa.
Ms Mahuta is on 78 percent, while Mr Papa is well back on 22 percent.
This result is significant because the Māori King advised all followers of the Kingitanga movement to vote for the Māori Party instead of Labour - and it seems the King has been ignored.