Opinion polls, bookies opposed on Brexit


The opinion polls are saying Britain will vote to leave the European Union. But that is not what the bookies are saying.

They are predicting that Britain will stay in the EU.

The polls give the 'Leave' campaign a lead of between three to seven points. But the bookmakers are forecasting a 58 percent chance that the 'Remain' camp will win next week's referendum.

Why the difference?

More than ten percent of people are undecided.  The punters are picking that a majority of those undecided voters will opt for the status quo.

That is what happened with both the Scottish independence vote and last year's UK general election.

The sports betting trade body, ESSA, says that the betting odds should be seen as being more reliable than the polling.

However the bookies say the odds are narrowing. Six weeks ago the betting gave the 'Remain' camp an 80 percent chance of winning. Bookmakers William Hill suggested the betting could be even by this weekend.

One thing is certain. A lot of money is being waged on the outcome of the Brexit vote.

Betting has already topped 30 million pounds (NZ$60 million).

That is getting close to the 35 million pounds that was bet on the 2014 World Cup.