A new house price report from CoreLogic has revealed the areas in New Zealand that have had the highest 12-month and five-year change in median values.
The report, called 'Best of the Best', sums up the past 12 months of housing data and finds indicators of a buyer's market in 2022.
CoreLogic says in the first quarter, mortgaged investors nearly reached a 30 percent share of property purchases amid a temporary respite from lending restrictions. But since the 40 percent deposit requirement kicked in, that share has dipped back closer to 25 percent.
But first-home buyers have been "more than keen to fill the gap", with their market share helped along by factors like KiwiSaver withdrawals and a willingness to look at cheaper properties, such as townhouses, units, or houses further from the city.
Key data from CoreLogic's report, which is accurate to November 2021, shows some areas in New Zealand have experienced a large change in median values of properties.
Woodville, just outside of Palmerston North, had the highest 12-month change in median value, up 47.7 percent.
Castlecliff, Whanganui, had the highest five-year change, with median values up 207.9 percent.
The areas that had the lowest 12-month and five-year change in median values were Sunshine Bay, Queenstown (6.7 percent) and Long Bay, Auckland (13 percent), respectively.
Other data from the report includes:
- Highest median value: Herne Bay, Auckland, $3,504,850 - a 30.7 percent increase on the previous year
- Lowest median value: Runanga, West Coast, $193,700 - $3,311,150 less than the highest median value
- Top sale price: 73 Argyle Street, Herne Bay, Auckland, $22,000,000
- Highest median rent: Karaka Bays, Wellington, $875 per week
- Lowest median rent: Twizel, MacKenzie Country, $285 per week.
CoreLogic says sales activity got off to a strong start in 2021, but from June and July it was starting to show signs of fatigue. Some of it was caused by a lack of listings. And despite lockdowns from August making the data hard to interpret, CoreLogic says sales volumes still appear to be downward.
But 2022 may be the year of the buyer's market, they predict. CoreLogic's chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says sales volumes have already turned a corner.
"[They] are likely to be much quieter in 2022, with the pace of annual value growth surely set to continue to ease from a figure of more than 25 percent for calendar-2021 to perhaps single digits, even low single digits, in 2022."
CoreLogic says four key issues or themes are emerging for the property market next year: the effect of further lending regulation, rising mortgage rates, a tight supply of listings starting to change, and the construction sector easing off.
"If anything, our concerns tend to centre on parts of the lower North Island, e.g. Tararua, Horowhenua, Whanganui, Porirua, and Lower Hutt, as well as other areas such as Wairoa, Otorohanga, Kawerau, Westland and MacKenzie. At the same time, areas such as Ashburton, Timaru, Waimakariri, Selwyn and Tasman look a bit safer, although nowhere is ever immune to all market forces," Davidson says.
"No doubt there'll be plenty more twists and turns for the housing market in 2022, and that's before you consider any further COVID disruptions. But we're certainly expecting a significant slowdown, and for 2022 to be a year where we see buyer's choice increase even with intensified financing restrictions."