Concerns New Zealand inflation could re-accelerate as overseas consumer prices heat up

Inflation isn't yet fully defeated and experts are concerned it could heat back up again as prices rise overseas. 

Both Australia and the US have seen consumer prices rising, with interest rate hikes likely on the way in both countries.  

And now there are concerns the effects will be felt in New Zealand. 

"The tradeable (imported) inflation has been working in our direction for the past 12 months," said Cameron Bagrie, an independent economist. "What we're now starting to see is that tradeable stuff is starting to pick up at a time non-tradeable - your domestic inflation - is still incredibly strong." 

Recent consumer price data among the world's biggest economies have increased fears of global inflation being more persistent than previously thought, Bagrie told AM. 

"We were on a one-way ticket south and things looked pretty good," he said. 

"Three to four months on, what are we seeing? Inflation's proving to be sticky... the United States is growing remarkably strongly still; unemployment rates are low around the globe. 

"Some elements of inflation look like they're ticking up, so central banks at the moment are in a real pickle point... they probably don't need to raise rates - they don't want to raise rates - but if we see this sort of inflation pulse continue around the globe, they might have to come out with that big stick again." 

New Zealand inflation - at 4 percent - hasn't even halved from its pandemic peak and the Reserve Bank is yet to start unwinding tight monetary policy.  

If inflation continues tracking downward, the central bank could move on interest rates later this year, market expectations suggest.