The MetService says it is keeping a close eye on two possible tropical cyclones in the south Pacific, which could have an effect on New Zealand.
Lisa Murray, the communications meteorologist for MetService says at this stage, nothing has formed, but there are some conditions around worth keeping tabs on.
She says cyclones are comparable to a complicated cake, in that the ingredients have to be aligned in the right order for the final product to form.
Whilst Ms Murray acknowledges there are two lows which the MetService is monitoring at the moment, it is too far out to be issuing warnings.
"There are two lows up there at the moment, one near Australia and another one north off us close to Vanuatu.
"The one close to Vanuatu has the potential to develop, not this week, but Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Around that time there is a moderate to high risk of development. The other low that is over near Australia, the ingredients aren't all aligned like the one that is just to the north of us, but there is still good potential - it is a deep low," she says.
Ms Murray says the data taken from global weather models isn’t very good at forecasting cyclones. Within the model, there are sometimes up to 100 different solutions as to where that weather pattern might form, how severe it is and where it will track.
"Currently we have a big ridge over us, so it is not going to rush down overnight or anything like that. That ridge will keep it at bay for the next few days and if it develops, it'll be a tropical cyclone in the tropics but by the time it gets down to us, it will no longer be a tropical cyclone though it could be a deep low if it did get to us."
That deep low could likely bring rain, wind and hail.
Ms Murray says with the year that some people have had so far, at this stage we shouldn't be getting worried about possible cyclones, and should instead be keeping an eye on forecasts.
"You know, people have had it rough this year, they've had droughts, floods and thunderstorms. We really should just be saying 'keep an eye on the forecast right now'. One of the problems with forecasting is the uncertainty involved in it."
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