Kiwi scientists have questioned the validity of new findings that suggest we are likely to see a significant increase in the number of devastating earthquakes striking around the globe in 2018.
The claims were made by US researchers Roger Bilham and Rebecca Bendick who found that when Earth's rotation decreased slightly, it was followed by periods of increased numbers of intense earthquakes five years later.
Earth's rotation began one of its periodic slowdowns more than four years ago meaning next year should see a rise in major earthquakes, according to the research.
"The Otago Earthquake Science group does not support the primary conclusion of this article," University of Otago professor Mark Stirling said.
"We see it as yet another example of a fortuitous correlation between earthquake occurrence and an unrelated phenomenon."
Senior lecturer Dr Virginia Toy, also at the Univesity of Otago, says statistical correlations have been made before but the latest research "shouldn't inspire panic".
"There are studies of whether earthquakes are preceded by 'lightning' or related to 'solid earth tides'. Some of these yield statistically defendable correlations; others don't.
Dr Tim Stahl, lecturer in tectonic geology at University of Canterbury, said while Professors Bilham and Bendick are respected scientists in earthquake geology and seismic risk, he wants to see their study peer-reviewed.
"As with any conference abstract or presentation, it is difficult to judge the scientific merit of the claims being made until they have undergone rigorous peer-review and additional testing by other research groups.
"It is important to note that the authors explicitly state in the abstract that the precise locations, times, or magnitudes of earthquakes cannot be predicted, even if their observations and interpretations are eventually confirmed by other researchers."
Mr Bilham told Newshub from the United States the new data could be "of value for earthquake engineers who could in principle do a great deal in a year to retrofit weak structures."
"For example if local planning authorities need additional [encouragement] to prepare for future earthquakes, now surely is a good time to do it," he says.
"New Zealand is held in high esteem by the world seismic community for their awareness of seismic hazards and for their efforts to reduce risks."
Newshub.
