NIWA says New Zealand is heading towards an "unsettled spring" with "active weather" on its way.
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"September is looking like it could be a busy weather month for the country," says NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll. "It does look like it could be a month to remember."
NIWA's seasonal climate outlook for the change in season shows the next three months becoming more active, with pressure dropping from high pressure in June to low in September.
"This could be a signal for very active weather in the New Zealand region during the early spring season," Noll says.
As the season progresses, high-pressure systems may become less frequent in the New Zealand region, contributing to more regular rainfall events.
However, overall rainfall between July and September is likely to be normal or below normal in the north of the North Island and north and east of the South Island. Rainfall is forecast to be near normal in all remaining regions of New Zealand.
Sea surface temperatures over the Tasman Sea remain above average, which might contribute to spells of above-average temperatures.
NIWA says that despite a low chance for a season with below average temperatures, cold snaps and frosts remain likely to occur.
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