Coronavirus: The arguments for and against moving to alert level 2 this week

Today Cabinet will announce whether the country will shortly move to COVID-19 alert level 2. 

For some level 2 can't come soon enough however for others, including several epidemiologists, the move is too soon. 

Newshub will have special coverage of the announcement on Three from 4pm and it will also be streamed on newshub.co.nz

Details were released on Thursday outlining what level 2 will look like including what can open and the rules they will have to follow. 

For many industries level 2 is seen as a financial lifeline, however health experts are concerned the move is too soon and could jeopardise all the hard work already done.

Newshub looked into the arguments for and against moving to level 2 on Thursday. 

The argument for moving to level 2 this week

The main argument to shift levels is the economy with economists warning the impact from the COVID-19 lockdown will be worse than the global financial crisis.  

Economist Cameron Bagrie told the AM Show in April that even if we move down levels quickly, the fallout from the virus is going to be significant. Bagrie said even level 1 will have a huge impact on the economy.

"alert level 1 for 12 months is a bigger economic hit than the global financial crisis. Now that puts things in perspective."

New Zealand has already spent 5 weeks in level 4 and will spend at least 2 weeks in level 3. How long we will spend in level 2 and 1 is unknown however, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern previously warned that overseas travel is unlikely for a long time. 

Unemployment is also predicted to surge with economist Shamubeel Eaqub pointing to the number of Kiwis already seeking jobseekers as evidence things are only going to get worse.

Figures released last week show the number of Kiwi jobseekers has risen from 145,000 to almost 175,000 (174,630) in the four weeks to April 17. 

"The number of jobseeker benefits, relative to population, is now just above the peak during the 2008/2009 GFC recession, when the unemployment rate peaked at 6.5 percent," Eaqub told Newshub. 

"We will face further waves of business closures and job losses in coming weeks and months: this recession will surpass anything in living memory."

Kiwibank predicts unemployment to peak between 9.5 and 10 percent. 

The tourism and hospitality industries are also calling for restrictions to be lifted as many have gone months without any form of income and see level 2 as a potential relief. 

While the Government has introduced a wage subsidy to help businesses keep staff employed, it hasn't been enough for many businesses.  

Before the details of level 2 were announced, chief executive of Tourism Industry Aotearoa Chris Roberts told the AM Show domestic travel, which is allowed under level 2, will allow the industry to begin recovering, and help minimise job losses. 

Roberts said domestic travel under level 2 will not only help tourism companies stay afloat but also give Kiwis the opportunity to see the country. 

"The next few months will be an amazing opportunity for Kiwis to experience the best New Zealand has to offer - and have the satisfaction of knowing that you are helping to save the livelihoods of other Kiwis," he said. 

The argument against moving to level 2 this week 

However, many experts believed if we move out of lockdown too soon we will waste all the effort we have already put in. 

Infectious diseases specialist David Murdoch told the AM Show on Monday Kiwis have done a great job, but if we become complacent with the rules we risk a second outbreak.

"As we have experienced from other pandemics in other parts of the world we need to be really cautionary in our approach because the risk of secondary outbreaks is very real," Murdoch said.

"We are getting clear indications people are ready to move on. The concern is whether everyone is ready to adhere to the guidelines and that's where there is a little bit of anxiety.

"That is the concern going forward given all the evidence we have put in, to drop our guard now would be a bit of a problem. 

Murdoch also stressed that just because our case numbers are low doesn't mean we are ready to reduce restrictions, because that decision is made based on several different factors. 

"One factor is looking at our numbers but [also] understanding the extent of community transmission... knowing that our systems are in place to keep going because it's the long game we are after with contact tracing... and of course the economic arguments as well."

Murdoch said the major concern that will dictate the move will be the prevalence of community transmission.

"That relies on being able to detect cases we might otherwise miss and contact tracing.

"So to just to sit back and say there is no (community transmission), I certainly think it's very low I think, there is good evidence of that but whether it's gone I think would be a brave thing to be sure of at the moment."

 Microbiologist Siouxsie Wiles is another expert who feels we need to take things slow. Dr Wiles told Stuff on Friday that Monday was too soon to move out of level 3 and instead we should wait until we have the full picture. 

"I would be hoping we stay for at least another week just to be sure we know what's happened in level 3," she told Stuff. 

The decision to move out of level 3 will be made by Cabinet today. If the decision is to move to level 2 the country will have 48 hours to prepare for the new restrictions. 

Jacinda Ardern said Cabinet's decision about whether to shift out of level 3 will take into consideration the impact of restrictions, "and ensuring we don't put at risk all of the gains we have made".  

As of Sunday New Zealand has 1144 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 21 deaths.