Coronavirus vaccine: When to expect travel, tourism and life in New Zealand to return to normal

COVID-19 has changed the world dramatically this year.

The pandemic has caused the deaths of millions, devastated the world economy and ravaged the global tourism industry, grounding flights and closing borders.

Masks are now commonplace, and once-foreign phrases like 'community transmission', 'self-isolation' and 'social-distancing' have become entrenched in our daily vernacular.

After two lockdowns, eight alert level changes and countless coronavirus press conferences, the comparative simplicity of 2019 seems a long time ago.

So when can we expect things to get back to normal? We take a look.

When will New Zealand get a vaccine?

It's no secret a vaccine is our greatest hope for a return to business as usual.

New Zealand has a deal for 1.5 million doses of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine. The drug company is applying for Emergency Use Authorisation in the US, which would open the door for millions of doses to be distributed globally.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a vaccine is likely to be on our shores by March 2021.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says a vaccine is likely to be on our shores by March 2021. Photo credit: Getty

The Prime Minister has said a vaccine is likely to be rolled out in New Zealand in the first quarter of 2021 - although it wouldn't be made available to everyone.

"At this point, our expectation that we have been running to is more around the March date," Jacinda Ardern told Newstalk ZB on Monday. "Not everyone is receiving vaccinations at the same time. It won't happen in one fell swoop."

Meanwhile, a Kiwi company is closing in on a world-first bio-bead COVID-19 vaccine of its own, however that's not expected to be ready until a year from now at least.

When will tourists return here?

The sudden drop-off in international visitors due to the pandemic has decimated New Zealand's tourism industry, with ASB referring to it as "the most visible casualty from COVID-19".

Tourism NZ research reveals it takes 12 overnight trips from Kiwis to equal the spend of the average international tourist, meaning the industry is likely to see a loss of $12.9 billion each year without foreign visitors.

New Stats NZ data shows some of the country's key tourism destinations - Queenstown, Rotorua and Auckland - experienced some of the largest drops in filled jobs in the September quarter.

But overseas visits could soon be a reality, particularly from our Antipodean neighbours, with the Australian government pushing hard for a two-way travel bubble with New Zealand.

While a proposal for quarantine-free travel before Christmas won't go ahead, Ardern announced on Monday that Cabinet had agreed in principle to establish a travel bubble with Australia, with plans this would open in the first quarter of 2021.

Some of the country's key tourism destinations like Queenstown, Rotorua and Auckland experienced some of the largest drops in filled jobs in the September quarter.
Some of the country's key tourism destinations like Queenstown, Rotorua and Auckland experienced some of the largest drops in filled jobs in the September quarter. Photo credit: Getty

Ardern said the Government intends to name a date for the bubble in the New Year.

Meanwhile Cook Islanders are hopeful of getting the green light to travel here from New Zealand officials by early next year too.

However it may be a while longer before travellers from the rest of the world set foot in Aotearoa without requiring a 14-day stay in managed isolation - even with the promise of a vaccine in early 2021.

Ardern tempered expectations recently when she told reporters it wouldn't change things overnight.

"It is fair to say the impact of vaccination will take some time to have [an] effect on the way we operate our borders and the resumption of normal life," she said.

"The vaccinations we're seeing, some of the early ones are not being delivered at a scale that will have significant impacts straight off - that will take a little bit more time, into 2021.

"But what we're having to do right now is plan at what point can we have enough confidence around a full vaccination programme that it will substantively change our arrangements at the border."

When can we go overseas again?

A one-way travel bubble with Australia came into force in October. For now, it's the only overseas destination New Zealanders can travel to without having to quarantine.

This 'Safe Travel Zone' enables Kiwis to fly across the Tasman to New South Wales, the Northern Territory and South Australia with no requirement to stay in managed isolation - however we do have to isolate upon returning to New Zealand at our own cost.

The Cook Islands looks set to be the next country to open up to Kiwis - though COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins poured cold water on a bubble with them before Christmas, saying more work needs to be done on testing and contract tracing before that happens.

Both Australia and the Cook Islands are scheduled to be open for quarantine-free travel for New Zealanders within the first few months of next year.

For now, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and Tourism (MFAT) advises that New Zealanders do not travel overseas at all at this time - although it acknowledges some will ignore this advice and embark on international trips regardless.

However Kiwis travelling overseas will have to abide by the travel restrictions mandated by each country - many of which are very strict.

Two of the exceptions to this are Japan and the United States, both of which allow Kiwis to travel there without self-isolating.

New Zealand makes up one of 11 countries that are currently on the Japanese government's unrestricted travel list, while the US's Center for Disease Control just recommends Kiwis distance from people they didn't travel with for two weeks, but doesn't enforce it.

Sydney and all Australia's other tourist hotspots could be accessible to Kiwis as early as March 2021.
Sydney and all Australia's other tourist hotspots could be accessible to Kiwis as early as March 2021. Photo credit: Newshub.

MFAT could not advise on when it would remove its 'do not travel' advisory, but it's likely it will coincide with a drop in global case numbers brought about by widespread distribution of an effective coronavirus vaccine.

It's yet to be seen how long a vaccine takes to be distributed to our favourite travel destinations.

When will the post get back to normal?

The short answer? Never.

At least that's according to New Zealand Post, who says COVID-19 and subsequent lockdown restrictions - which made visits to most 'bricks and mortar' shops impossible - have changed things forever.

"When the country first moved into Alert Level 3 earlier in the year, online shopping increased a massive 105 percent," NZ Post chief customer officer Bryan Dobson said.

Since then, online shopping has remained about 30 percent up - and NZ Post says this indicates the volume of deliveries will permanently remain up on pre-pandemic levels.

"Buying your groceries and other everyday items online and having them delivered has become the new norm for many," the company says.

Online shopping is still up 30 percent on pre-pandemic levels, New Zealand Post says, indicating a shift in consumer behaviour.
Online shopping is still up 30 percent on pre-pandemic levels, New Zealand Post says, indicating a shift in consumer behaviour. Photo credit: Getty

Adding to the busyness for postal services is limited air and sea freight capacity on international deliveries, caused by port congestion, insufficient vessel capacity and limited availability of equipment.

These issues will take some time to resolve, with predictions congestion will take until well beyond the Christmas period to clear.

In September, the Government extended its International Air Freight Capacity (IAFC) Scheme - which supports carriers in maintaining trade links with global markets - to March next year.