Waitangi Day is looking fine so far for New Zealand but there are warnings that the tropical cyclone season is only just approaching its peak.
MetService says there are a dry seven days ahead - "good news for those making Waitangi weekend plans".
"A ridge of high pressure over Aotearoa is keeping most of the country dry over the next week," it says on Facebook.
"Although a few fronts are approaching the country from the southwest, they are predicted to weaken or stall before bringing any significant rainfall."
But this high is expected to break down and move away after Waitangi Day, as a low-pressure system approaches from the Tasman Sea.
"The low and its associated fronts will bring more widespread rain around the middle of next week," MetService says.
WeatherWatch's long-range February outlook warns the tropics are "highly active and ripe for cyclone formation".
"La Nina has peaked but the tropical cyclone season is only just approaching its peak," it says.
"The next two months are the peak season for tropical cyclones with sea surface temperatures not peaking until March in the South Pacific and Australia regions."