Although Government advisors say New Zealand could begin to loosen its border restrictions from the start of 2022, Aotearoa may never return to the old pre-pandemic normal.
Research commissioned by Associate Health Minister Ayesha Verrall, led by prominent epidemiologist Sir David Skegg, was released on Wednesday. The report recommends a phased reopening of the country and says the Government shouldn't begin to loosen border restrictions until next year.
It's a new glimpse into what the future may look like, but Dr Nikki Turner, director of the Immunisation Advisory Centre, says it's a new normal we're moving towards, especially when it comes to travelling overseas.
"I think we're going to see these sort of staged steps where people are going to need various degrees of MIQ facilities or home isolation and continuing to swab as well," she tells The Project.
But until people are vaccinated, it'll be hard to travel almost anywhere.
"It's looking more and more likely internationally that many countries will be checking vaccine passports when people travel, and I believe that's likely to happen in New Zealand too," Dr Turner adds.
She also says it's unlikely the COVID-19 vaccine will be similar to the flu shot and yearly boosters won't be needed - especially since there are no signs of waning immunity yet from the Pfizer vaccine. But the vaccine may change to tackle new variants that emerge.
"I think for most people we will eventually need boosters, either because a mutation changes that the vaccine no longer works for or eventually your immunity wanes."
And we may not have seen the last of lockdowns, epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker warns.
"I think moving up the alert level system is going to be needed in the future. If we ever get a severe outbreak of the Delta variant, which is dominant, we would need a short intense lockdown at the very least to manage that," he tells The Project.
Even after the borders begin to open and more people are vaccinated, masks and hand sanitiser could be even more prevalent.
"When we start to ease up on our borders, we will see COVID coming into New Zealand," Turner says.
"And I think we have to up our game in terms of wearing masks in public places and religiously using hand sanitiser."
The Government will formally respond to the report's findings on Thursday.
Watch the video above.
