The anticipated shift to alert level 3 is still on the cards for embattled Auckland, says Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson, despite daily infections remaining firmly in the double-digits and the news of new cases in Waikato.
Last week, the Government made an in-principle decision to shift Auckland out of lockdown at 11:59pm on Tuesday, September 21 - marking five weeks since the region first entered alert level 4 on August 17. Cabinet will convene on Monday to determine whether or not Auckland is ready for alert level 3, with their decision to be announced at the post-Cabinet press conference at 4pm.
Despite promising signs last week, seeds of doubt have been sown in recent days. Daily case numbers have yo-yoed in and out of the 20s, with 11 new cases on Friday rising to 20 on Saturday - and an additional 24 recorded on Sunday. A few "mystery" cases are also yet to be epidemiologically linked to the outbreak, a key concern for public health experts.
On Sunday night, it was also revealed three people in the small Waikato community of Kaiaua/Whakatīwai had tested positive for COVID-19, two of whom are children who attend primary school in Mangatangi. The cases have been linked to a remand prisoner who was permitted to return to their home in Waikato after being held at Mt Eden Correctional Facility in Auckland.
According to health officials, at least one of the children was symptomatic while at school on Thursday.
Leading epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker is now calling for the Government to ring-fence the Waikato region. He says officials need to assume there is undetected transmission in the community and act quickly to contain further spread, with alert level 2 restrictions no longer sufficient in light of the latest developments.
Speaking to The AM Show on Monday morning, Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson said health officials will consider whether restrictions in Waikato need to be toughened, but noted that no advice about shifting the region to alert level 3 - or extending Auckland's boundary to include the affected area - has been given at this stage.
He acknowledged that bumping up the restrictions in the region could "potentially" be a next step.
"We'll take that advice from health officials… [Kaiaua/Whakatīwai] is an area about 5km across the boundary and it's a relatively isolated community. We'll listen to the advice that we get, but I haven't received any advice at this stage indicating we need to [act on that] this morning," he said.
"We'll look at the advice we get to see if that is needed. Both level 4 and level 3 have significant restrictions. Equally, the reason why we kept the rest of New Zealand at level 2 while Auckland is in level 4 is to make sure there is mask wearing, social distancing and limits on gatherings - this is a good reminder as to why we do that."
But all is not lost for Auckland, with Robertson not ruling out a possible shift to alert level 3 on Tuesday despite the latest developments.
He says the cases in Waikato will be considered by Cabinet on Monday, but noted that both alert level 4 and alert level 3 offer "significant restrictions". According to the Government's framework, alert level 3 is introduced when there is a "medium" risk of community transmission. Clusters can be active under alert level 3, as long as they are managed.
"Of course we'll bear in mind the situation [in Waikato], but that decision hasn't yet been taken," Robertson said.
"We'll get the latest advice from the Ministry of Health today. If we were to go to alert level 3, it is still an alert level with significant restrictions - while there is more ability to do click-and-collect and get takeaways and some businesses are operating, people are still expected to stay in their household bubbles and there isn't any travel outside of the Auckland area, so while we haven't taken a decision yet, both level 4 and level 3 have restrictions. When we designed the framework, level 3 [does] consider clusters of transmission.
"What we need to know is if we have the outbreak under control, and over the last few days you would've heard health officials say they're 'cautiously optimistic' about that. We've got a number of cases, but we're able to link those cases very quickly."
Regarding the Waikato household, Robertson said the children would not have been infected at school and a "tentative" epidemiological link has been made via the remand prisoner to one of the clusters in Auckland - however, further investigation is required to finalise that connection.
"We've got preliminary indications there is an epidemiological link to the outbreak to one of the clusters, we need to finalise that and get that confirmation and advice from our officials."
Of the nine people in the household, only the three have tested positive so far, with one swab still pending. Due to electronic monitoring, officials know the remand prisoner did not leave the property until the day they headed back to Auckland for court.
He noted the decision to send the remand prisoner back to his home in Kaiaua/Whakatīwai was made by the court. According to the Government's official guidelines, people are able to travel across an alert level boundary to return home or change homes after a period of requirement, detention or determination. A letter or decision from the New Zealand Parole Board or a court order must be carried as evidence.
"That was a decision of the court, the court grants bail to people… it's not completely unusual for someone to leave level 4 and go to level 2, for example people who leave MIQ after their two weeks head off around the country," he said.
"Exactly when and where the person got the virus is now being investigated, but the decision was made to send the person out to their address, which was just outside the boundary."