It'll be a largely warm and settled week for New Zealand, MetService says - but the threat of another thunderstorm looms large over an already sodden Gisborne.
The forecaster says a ridge of high pressure will linger over much of the country, bringing temperatures in the low-to-mid 20Cs. Alexandra is expected to climb to 26C on Monday, with Taumarunui and Masterton following suit on Tuesday.
But as summer inches closer and higher temperatures reach our shores, MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker says that brings an increased risk of thunderstorms.
"When the atmosphere is warmer and wetter at low levels than at higher levels, it's unstable," he explained. "That means a small trigger, like converging winds, can make all that warm, moist air rise quickly and spark up a thunderstorm."
MetService has issued two Severe Thunderstorm Watches for Monday afternoon and evening, covering inland Northland, and parts of the Bay of Plenty, Hawke's Bay, and Taupo.
If a severe thunderstorm forms in these areas, localised downpours of 25-40mm/h are possible, as well as hail.
Unfortunately, Gisborne could also be in the firing line. The region on the east coast of the North Island was besieged with rain last week, bringing floods and prompting evacuations and the declaration of a state of emergency.
"For an already-saturated Gisborne, localised downpours could have disproportionately large and quick impacts. MetService reminds you to follow the advice of your Regional Council and Civil Defence in the event of such downpours," the forecaster said.
In a statement, the Gisborne District Council said this rain is expected to mostly miss the city, and will instead skirt around inland from Ruatorea and north of Tolaga Bay.
This will come as a relief to residents and response teams in the area, who are out checking roads and properties and helping evacuated locals get back into their homes.
In stark juxtaposition with Gisborne, settled weather for the east coast of the South Island means parts of Canterbury and Otago are already starting to get "extremely dry", MetService warns.
"Other than the odd convective shower, that's set to continue for a few more days," the forecaster said.
"The mostly fine weather won't last, however. A low pressure system is set to move across Te Waipounamu on Friday, bringing periods of rain to much of the country this weekend."
NIWA Weather warns a jet stream will make its way to New Zealand before the weekend, "transporting yet more warmth but also unsettled weather across the Tasman".
