Northern New Zealand could be at risk next week as a potential tropical cyclone forms in the Solomon Sea.
Low pressure is deepening in this area and the system is likely to drift down and strengthen as it enters the Coral Sea, turning into a cyclone by the end of the week.
"Conditions up here are perfect for a tropical cyclone. Seas are warmer than average, there's not a lot of high pressure around up here - it's mostly down to the south," WeatherWatch forecaster Phillip Duncan explains on YouTube.
"So this system, if it does form the way the models are starting to show… this storm is likely to be tracking towards Vanuatu, New Caledonia. Those are the two places at highest risk right now."
After the weekend, some models show it continuing its south-eastward track towards New Zealand - potentially heading right for northern New Zealand.
If it does arrive, it is likely to hit on Wednesday night - the same day the Auckland border comes down - before sweeping down the North Island with heavy rain, gale-force winds and large swells.
But its exact path is still to be determined. A big high-pressure system to the east of New Zealand might move closer to us, which could manage to keep the low in the tropics or drive it into the Tasman Sea.
"There is plenty of weather to happen before that point - just know that MetService will be providing you with updates and will issue official Severe Weather Warnings if these become necessary," MetService says.
