COVID-19: Experts warn actual number of people catching Omicron much higher than official numbers

There were 744 new COVID cases in the community on Tuesday - almost 250 fewer than Monday.

But don't think we're beating this thing - experts say the real number of people catching Omicron will be much higher than the actual numbers.

And as the cases increase, so do the tests - with about 20,000 swabs being undertaken in Auckland on Monday.

But experts say about 70 percent of those - 14,000 - were not necessary and put a strain on the system.

"Over the last few days it's been over 50 percent of people coming through have not been symptomatic and in the last 24 hours that's gone up to over 70 percent," said Andrew Old, the Northern Region Health Coordination Centre's chief clinical officer.

"We're encouraging people who don't have symptoms, who aren't close contacts and who haven't been directed [to get tested] for other reasons to stay at home," Dr OId told Newshub.

But University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker said people who do have cold and flu symptoms and need to be tested should not be deterred by long testing queues.

"Unfortunately, some people who should go and get tested may not be doing it," Prof Baker said.

Labs nationwide are managing the surge at the moment but they can't keep it up forever - and warn they're inching closer to reaching capacity.

Michael Baker.
Michael Baker. Photo credit: The Project

"We know that we can't hit the high numbers - the 40 to 50,000 tests per day," said Terry Taylor from the Institute of Medical Laboratory Science.

"The reality of that for our guys on the ground is that's just going to put too much pressure on the system, so we wouldn't be able to keep that up for a long period at all."

While Omicron cases dropped on Tuesday, community spread is thought to be much wider than the official figures. 

"You have to look at the trend and the trend is going only one way at the moment - and it's going up very dramatically," Prof Baker said.

And as numbers soar, there's a new way to keep society running. From Wednesday, critical workers who are close contacts can use rapid antigen tests.

Those workers will be able to pick up and drop off the tests at dedicated collections sites.

They then tell their employer the result. If it's negative, they can return to work.

But not everyone's happy.

"They could not have set up a more bureaucratic process really," said Katherine Rich from the NZ Food and Grocery Council.

"Workers, not the businesses, have to front up with at least six different pieces of paper, letters, order numbers, IDs, texts," she told AM.

But those on the testing front hope rapid tests will relieve some of the pressure and keep queuing in cars for PCR swabs to a minimum.