New Zealand is facing the biggest food crisis of modern human times, according to Federated Farmers.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is having many ripple effects across the world but aside from the loss of human life - the impact on food supply and costs around the world including New Zealand could be one of the worst.
President of Mid Canterbury Federated Farmers and arable farmer David Clark wasn't mincing his words, describing it as "the largest food crisis to face modern human existence".
One of the crops he grows near Ashburton is wheat but it's Ukraine and Russia that are known as the world's breadbasket. Together they export 30 percent of the world's wheat alongside many other key crops and oils.
"It shouldn't be understated just how serious this is, taking an agricultural producer the size of Ukraine out of production," Clark said.
One study found Russia and Ukraine are responsible for 12 percent of the world's calories.
Many of Ukraine's wheat and corn fields are now battlefields and many Ukrainian farmers are now full-time soldiers.
In addition, exports have halted entirely. Strict sanctions on Russia from many countries including New Zealand also mean many of their exports are now out of the global supply.
"This is going to have a major impact on the world's supply of food," Clark said.
But the Prime Minister played down the impact on New Zealand.
"They're less likely to have an impact on New Zealand but will have an impact on the world as a whole," Jacinda Ardern said.
But food prices have already risen steadily over the past year, as rising global demand struggled against COVID-19 disruption and the Russian invasion has put enormous pressure on the entire supply chain which significantly impacts New Zealand.
"We've seen the annual food price inflation has already gone to 6.8 percent and we are expecting to see it continue going upwards," economist Brad Olsen said.
The outlook wasn't good given nobody knows how long the war will last.
"The pathway going forward doesn't provide any relief," said Olsen.
Russia is also the number one exporter of fertiliser globally, one of the most important products for New Zealand farmers.
"We've seen a 200-300 percent increase in our fertiliser costs so far. Fertiliser prices have been rising anyway as energy prices are rising but Russia invading Ukraine has made that much much worse," Clark said.
And while farmers know sanctions are more than necessary, they also know how hard New Zealand families would be hit.