New earthquake model shows dramatic increase in shaking probability

There is a dramatic increase in the strength of future earthquakes in New Zealand by more than twice as much, new modelling shows. 

An updated National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) looks at hundreds of thousands of possible earthquakes and examines what shaking might result from that.

Seismologist Matt Gerstenberger told AM on Tuesday the model was put together by 50 scientists from around the world.

The updated model found, on average, results have increased by 50 percent or more - highlighting the need to boost national resilience strategies and readiness.

An important part of the model provides an estimate of the likelihood and strength of earthquake ground shaking at any given site in New Zealand and considers how different parts of the country might behave in the event of large magnitude earthquakes.

Watch the video for the full interview with Gerstenberger and Auckland University civil engineering professor Ken Elwood.