Another tropical cyclone likely to form this weekend, could reach parts of NZ next week

This prediction for the 16th of January comes from GFS maps.
This prediction for the 16th of January comes from GFS maps. Photo credit: WeatherWatch.co.nz

New Zealand's soggy summer may be about to get even worse with another tropical cyclone expected to form this weekend.

On Monday, WeatherWatch tweeted out this image as an update for #NextWeek. 

Should the tropical cyclone reach New Zealand these are the areas WeatherWatch predicts it will likely impact.
Should the tropical cyclone reach New Zealand these are the areas WeatherWatch predicts it will likely impact. Photo credit: WeatherWatch.co.nz

The predictions come from Global Forecast System (GFS) maps run by the US government which have access to a longer range than displayed by many New Zealand outlets.

Philip Duncan, Head Weather Analyst for WeatherWatch, said that after cyclone Hale passes over the country, "we do expect, with fairly high confidence, that there will be another tropical cyclone forming this weekend."

The tropical cyclone is expected to form between New Caledonia and Tonga, and Duncan said "the likely tracking of that system is that it will drift towards the North Island."

If it reaches New Zealand's shores the storm will impact the north and east of the North Island predominantly. 

However, Duncan was clear "It's not locked in yet. There will also be high pressure trying to move in around that time so we may not have a storm but definitely something to keep an eye on."

The cyclone has the potential to be stronger than cyclone Hale which is currently impacting the North Island, but it is hard to predict exactly how strong it might be.

This is because "every single tropical low is as unique as a fingerprint," Duncan said.

"At this stage, it would be too early to tell whether it would be worse than the storm New Zealand is currently experiencing."

Angus Hines, a Broadcast Meteorologist for Metservice, supported WeatherWatch's predictions, he told Newshub "the tropics north of the country remain active even after Cyclone Hale moves across New Zealand," adding " there is a chance that another tropical low could develop next week."

However, Hines also added that Metservice "feels it is too early, and the situation too uncertain, to warn people to brace for more severe weather (especially since the current bout of severe weather is ongoing).

"As per normal, we will continue to watch this development and gather as much information as possible."

Duncan still has hope for the classic Kiwi summer though - "It looks like there will hopefully be some high pressure rolling in after this," meaning "we've still got plenty of hot dry days on the way."