New Zealand is one of a few island nations in the world that could produce enough food to feed its population to survive a nuclear winter, according to researchers.
The new study found five island nations could produce enough food, despite the reduced sunlight and cooler temperatures caused by soot in the atmosphere following a nuclear war in the Northern Hemisphere.
The study by Professor Nick Wilson, from the University of Otago, Wellington, and independent researcher Dr Matt Boyd, from Adapt Research, says New Zealand along with Australia, Iceland, Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands were likely to have robust food self-sufficiency, even in extreme nuclear winter.
Dr Boyd said despite other countries being able to produce enough food, other factors such as the collapse of industries and social functioning placed their resilience in doubt.
Professor Wilson added the findings are consistent with a 1980s study on the impact of nuclear war on New Zealand, although the country's resilience has declined since then as its dependence on imported diesel and digital infrastructure has grown.
"Islands such as New Zealand are often very dependent on imports of refined liquid fuel, may lack energy self-sufficiency and are susceptible to breakdowns and shortages of critical commodities," Wilson said.
'While New Zealand could divert a high proportion of its dairy exports to supply the local market, it lacks the ability to manufacture many replacement parts for farm and food processing machinery."
The findings also reinforce the precarious position many countries could find themselves in during a global catastrophe, Dr Boyd said.
"New Zealand has the potential to preserve an industrial society through this kind of catastrophe, but it is not 'plug-and-play,'" Dr Boyd said.
"A decent amount of strategic planning needs to happen and across a long period of time, but this planning would have benefits in dealing with a wide range of extreme risks."
Dr Boyd said the findings show there is a need to analyse nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight-reducing scenarios as part of a comprehensive national risk assessment.
"We are not aware of any plan for this kind of global catastrophe, including whether priorities for rationing have been considered," Dr Boyd said.
"With the Government expected to release New Zealand's first National Security Strategy this year, it is important the catastrophic risks associated with abrupt sunlight-reducing scenarios do not slip through the cracks."
The research was published in the international journal Risk Analysis.
