Brad Olsen says high net migration may address labour shortage but could fuel inflation

 "If we've got more workers available across the economy, that does at least address some of the skilled areas that we know we need more workers in."
"If we've got more workers available across the economy, that does at least address some of the skilled areas that we know we need more workers in." Photo credit: Getty Images

By RNZ

A two-year high in net migration levels could throw a lifeline to sectors crying out for staff in a tight labour market.

New Stats NZ data shows an annual net migration gain of 33,200 people, that compares with a loss of 17,500 people.

It was the highest net migration level since December 2020.

Infometrics senior economist Brad Olsen said the influx of people would increase both supply and demand in the economy.

"Of course, these people that are coming to New Zealand need services and goods to survive and so do their family, but at the same time, those people coming into the country are also a pool of talent we can use to address some of those higher demands that we see across the economy," he said.

"So, in general, you would expect to see those two broadly cancel each other out, at least theoretically."

Olsen said the additional demand could fuel inflation in the short term, as inflation remains close to multi-decade highs at 7.2 percent.

"But at the same time, one of the reasons that we're seeing more persistent and higher levels of inflation is because of the difficulty of finding workers and the challenging environment to deliver on business activities with the materials and people that we have available.

"If we've got more workers available across the economy, that does at least address some of the skilled areas that we know we need more workers in."

Olsen said it was not clear if new entrants were filling skills gaps, but the number of people coming into the country had been increasing since the government.

loosened some migration settings] via the updated Green List, which included jobs in construction, engineering, trades, health and tech.

"We would expect to start to see a higher number of the people coming into New Zealand, having some of those visa opportunities that the government has been pushing for and with the Green List being constructed specifically to address some of the skill shortages that we've got across the economy, there's a good expectation that the people we're getting coming into New Zealand will be starting to at least begin to address the needs we've got.

"It's clear so far that again, New Zealand's economy is still trying to do too much with too little, and despite the fact we are seeing more people come into the country, we haven't been hearing that feedback on the ground yet from businesses who are saying that it's becoming easier to find staff."