New Zealand 'very much in the picture' of conflict between China and West - military strategist

A military strategist says New Zealand is not on the sidelines of conflict between China and the West.

Over the past week, tensions over Taiwan have escalated with China warning the United States it will face conflict and confrontation if the US "doesn't hit the brakes".

Australia has predicted a war could happen as early as three years away.

When Newshub Nation co-host Simon Shepherd asked Australian military strategist Mick Ryan about whether or not Australia was being alarmist, Ryan said: "There is nothing alarmist about that timeframe. Defence over the last couple of years has said we no longer have the 10-year warning time we used to plan on."

He said the statements from China's President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Qin Gang have been indicative of how aggressive China will be to get what it wants in the Western Pacific - including taking back Taiwan.

"Senior American commanders both in the Indo-Pacific and the Pentagon have all warned the next three to four years will be the most dangerous period for us to traverse," Ryan said.

"This is about informing the Australian public about the kind of risk that our country faces."
Australia is part of AUKUS, a technical relationship between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States of America.

"It's a relationship where we will share nuclear submarine technology and co-develop nuclear submarines," Ryan said.

On Saturday, Newshub Nation asked if New Zealand would be able to sit on the sidelines of the conflict because it isn't part of AUKUS.

Ryan said New Zealand would still be dragged into the conflict regardless of whether we were in the technical relationship or not.

"Unfortunately New Zealand is not sitting on the sidelines. This isn't just about submarines, this is about diplomacy, this is about economics, this is about influence. And NZ is very much in the picture when it comes to all these aspects of competition with China," Ryan said.
China is New Zealand's biggest trading partner but Ryan said New Zealand still wouldn't be able to avoid conflict.

He said China is also the largest trading partner for many other places including Australia and many countries in Europe but it hasn't stopped them from pushing back on China's foreign influence aggression.

"At some point, you just have to take a stand for your values. China's values are not aligned with ours and I'd suggest they're probably not aligned with New Zealand's," Ryan said.

"Our foreign interference legislation, our views on 5G are something that New Zealand might like to look at."
Australia is also reportedly buying around five nuclear-powered submarines, and along with the US and Japan is increasing spending on defence as a "deterrent measure" against a catastrophic war China could force.
When Newshub Nation asked Ryan how China felt about AUKUS, he said they are never happy when countries get together to push back on its aggression and coercion.

"They will continue to be unhappy about anything that seeks to stop their aggressive expansion in our region," Ryan said.

"AUKUS is all about preventing war. No one wants a war in the Western Pacific or indeed anywhere."

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