Ukraine invasion: Why Russia winning war would be 'blow' to New Zealand

A foreign affairs expert believes it's imperative Russia doesn't win the war in Ukraine as it could have major repercussions for New Zealand.

It comes as Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and other world leaders arrive in Lithuania ahead of the NATO Summit that marks 500 days since Russian troops invaded Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Hipkins has confirmed he will meet with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy while he is at the NATO meeting.

International relations expert Robert Patman told AM on Tuesday even though New Zealand is so far away, our presence at the meeting is important.

Patman told fill-in AM co-host Michael O'Keeffe if Russian president Vladimir Putin wins the war it could have drastic consequences for New Zealand.

"Let's be quite clear about this, Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine has global repercussions, particularly for small actors like New Zealand and middle powers, which need what's called a rules-based international order," he said.

"If Mr Putin succeeds in his invasion, that would be, if you like, a blow to the rules-based order globally and could seriously inconvenience players like New Zealand, which trade with more than 100 countries around the world and depend on those rules in order for New Zealand to go about its business internationally."

New Zealand is not a part of NATO, but Patman believes building alliances with those countries' leaders could avoid Aotearoa having to choose between China and the United States.

"I think NATO has become, if you like, a legitimate source of providing military security and it's largely got liberal democracies within it and from New Zealand's point of view, it's a good ally to have on the security front," he told AM.

"It also means New Zealand doesn't have to choose just between, say, China and the United States. There has been a lot of debate in New Zealand recently that New Zealand should choose a side and I think by developing relations with a multilateral alliance like NATO, that shows New Zealand has a number of options internationally."

Leaders will discuss Russia's aggression and hopefully overcome differences over the prospective membership of Ukraine and Sweden, Patman believes.

He said Germany and the United States have been in no hurry to approve Ukraine and Sweden's bid to join NATO in fear it could provoke Russia even more.

"I personally don't [think it will escalate the conflict], but certainly the US President is mindful Mr Putin may think with Ukraine in NATO he's got nothing to lose and he will become even more provocative and forthcoming in his military actions in Ukraine," he told AM.

"He hasn't shown much restraint so far, but I think the fear on the American side is it could escalate the situation considerably."
But Patman argued if Ukraine was approved to join NATO, it would show Putin he cannot win the war.

"Some would argue that would indicate quite firmly to Mr Putin that he can't win in Ukraine and he should withdraw his troops as soon as possible because he's got no prospect of defeating NATO," he said.

"If Ukraine is in NATO, then the game is effectively up, according to this argument for Mr Putin."

Watch the full interview with Robert Patman in the video above.