Hundreds of wind turbines could be built off the coast of Taranaki over the next decade, generating clean energy to decarbonise New Zealand and freeing the region from its economic reliance on fossil fuels.
But the government's still working on legislation to allow offshore wind farms to be built, and the industry is urging for certainty so overseas investors don't lose interest.
Taranaki's wind resource is considered world-class, prompting the interest of four developers keen to progress plans to build wind turbines in the South Taranaki Bight.
South Taranaki mayor Phil Nixon said he's excited.
"It's going to be huge for us, I mean obviously, we've got to transition from oil and gas," Nixon said.
Taranaki has prospered on energy since oil was first found in the late 1800s. Now, it's looking to pivot to the green energy era.
"There's a transition happening here, there are huge skills in terms of oil and gas, subsea infrastructure, all of which are directly transferable to offshore wind," Port Taranaki CEO Simon Craddock said.
"It's really critical that we move with pace. Every other country that has an opportunity to look at offshore wind is doing so, and is doing so at scale so it's important that we maintain our position and are able to lock in a place in the global supply chain for the components we can't produce in New Zealand," BlueFloat Energy partnerships director Justine Gilliland said.
BlueFloat Energy in partnership with Elemental Group is hoping to begin construction of 60 turbines in the next decade.
They're among four developers planning to build turbines about 25km off the coast of Taranaki and roughly 260m high - that's more than double the height of the 95m onshore turbines in the Waipipi Wind Farm in South Taranaki.
Gilliland said it's really important New Zealand sets some offshore wind generation targets and announces those to the world so the supply chain can factor us into their planning.
"We've got international developers that are looking at these big investments, so when they're putting in their supply chain work with those suppliers they are talking at a global scale, so for our company - BlueFloat - can have a serious conversation with suppliers and say that we have 33 gigawatts planned, three gigawatts of which is New Zealand."
But there are obstacles before the offshore developers can get to work - New Zealand's network needs more capacity to handle the huge influx of generation, and the country doesn't yet have a regulatory framework for offshore wind.
"I know the Government is working on it, and I certainly hope we don't lose any momentum on it with the upcoming election," Nixon said.
Energy experts say if we don't get on with it, we risk losing our skilled energy sector workers to other countries developing their own renewable industries.
"To allow offshore windfarms to truly flourish, what we need to do is work hard to retain the skills and the workers that we have in the upstream oil and gas sector because they will need to be in New Zealand when the wind farms are built," Energy Resources Aotearoa CEO John Carnegie said.
"What we don't want to be in is a position in 10 years time when we're competing with Australia, the Middle East and America."
The transition will be costly. CEO of Port Taranaki Simon Craddock said an upgrade of between US$100 - US$300 million will be required to handle the processing of enormous turbine components.
"When we look overseas to Australia, the US and Europe we see governments playing a big role in getting this industry off the ground, both in port infrastructure, and electricity industry matters," Craddock said.
Carnegie also says the economics of offshore wind farms will be challenging.
"There will be a lot to do to ensure the proponents can turn a dollar, but also that the energy is affordable for users."
For small towns like Patea there is enormous opportunity, developers say a new port will be required and the turbines' construction and ongoing servicing will create hundreds of jobs.
A 2020 report by the region's economic development agency Venture Taranaki said "the total potential offshore wind resource in Taranaki waters is considerably larger than the energy currently extracted annually from Taranaki's existing oil and gas fields".
Gilliland works for one of the developers, saying the generation from their proposed 60 turbines off the Taranaki coast will be 900 MW. That combined with their other proposed wind farm off the coast of Waikato will generate a total of 3 gigawatts.
"New Zealand's electricity system at the moment is about 9 gigawatts. In terms of generation, and so it's kind of a third of that," she said.
"But we need to put that in the context of what we need to decarbonise our economy."
It's expected we'll need about 1 to 1.5 gigawatts of new generation per year until 2050 to decarbonise the economy - when you factor in hard-to-abate industries like steel and methanol.
And energy experts say it's not the end of oil and gas extraction - natural gas especially will be needed for some decades to come to underpin the electricity system.
"We need to hold a role for affordable gas because it provides an energy security safety net which compliments our growing base of renewable energy," Carnegie said.
"It's actually needed to fill in the gaps when the wind doesn't blow, or the rain doesn't come or the sun doesn't shine. It'll play a critical role in maintaining New Zealand's energy security."
