Concerns are growing New Zealand's ageing population and low fertility rates could cause major economic headaches in the years ahead.
New Zealand has an ageing population, declining fertility rates and population growth that is only propped up by immigration.
It's not just New Zealand where there are concerns there aren't enough babies being born to replace the existing population. A study released last year showed by the end of the century, the United Nations predicts 23 countries will see their populations halved.
It has governments around the world scrambling to engineer a baby boom. Hungary implemented a policy in 2019 that if people had four or more babies, they would pay no income tax for life.
Just last year, National Party leader Christopher Luxon joked Kiwis, if they wish, should "go out there and have more babies".
While he was joking, he may have a point.
Distinguished Professor Emeritus Paul Spoonley joined AM on Thursday morning ahead of the 2024 New Zealand Economics Forum at the University of Waikato next week.
He told the show New Zealand's demography is being transformed this decade.
"So by the 2030s, a very different New Zealand will have emerged and at the Economic Forum, what I'm hoping to say is, remember people, remember our demography, not simply focus on the economic factors because that dropping fertility, rapid ageing, 1 in 4 of us will be aged over 65 - unheard of," he said.
The fertility rate is an issue in New Zealand.
The fertility rate shows the average number of babies women would have in their life. The replacement rate in New Zealand is 2.1, which is the number of children a pair would have to have in order to replace themselves. In countries with high infant and child mortality rates, the replacement level is much higher.
New Zealand's data isn't great reading either. The latest Stats NZ data figures showed New Zealand's fertility rate plummeted in 2023 to 1.58 births. In 2022 it was 1.66, which was slightly higher than the previous two years (1.64 and 1.61 respectively).
Spoonley said if New Zealand's fertility rate hits 1.5 then we would become part of a category called low fertility countries. He added it's dropping for Pākehā but not for Māori.
"When we look out ten years, if we look at the under 15 or under 25 population, the Māori population will continue to grow proportionate to the whole population. 1 in 20 of us will self-identify as Māori," he said.
So as New Zealand's population continues to age, questions turn to who is going to pay for it.
Superannuation will become a hot talking point, as it has in a lot of countries around the world, as it becomes more and more expensive.
"As we age, then fiscal stress comes on the government who pay for our superannuation. You guys are paying for my superannuation, the cost of health care. How we accommodate an ageing society is a huge fiscal challenge," he told AM.
"Do we continue to build these big retirement homes? How do we look after our older people? Who cares for them? There's an issue at the moment, do we have enough critical care beds? No we don't. So we need probably another 12,000 of those. So where are they? Who pays for it?"
Watch the full interview above.
