Labour's confidential polling leaked

Newshub has been leaked poll results from the company that does Labour's internal polling which show it is in big trouble, two-and-a-half months out from the election.

The results show Labour is on 26 percent support - crashing from 34 percent in May.

And New Zealand First, for the first time in three years of polling, is no longer the lowest rating party.

Winston Peters and co are on 14 percent - up 5 percent since May - just overtaking the Greens who are on 13 percent.

The company, UMR, does the polling for Labour's inner sanctum and the results are normally kept secret from the public.

Tonight the Labour Party and UMR said the results had not yet been released to the Labour Party and the leak must have come from a corporate client who had already been provided the results.

It is a credible, regular poll of 750 people that Labour's leadership and MPs really rely on - and the figures provided to Newshub are right up to date to July.

It is very unusual for this to be leaked - and the numbers look very bad for Labour.

The graph of greatest significance shows the party vote.

National is chugging along as usual - currently on 42 percent - then Labour (26 percent), the Greens (13 percent) and New Zealand First (14 percent).

But if you zoom in on the past six months, there's a fascinating trend.

Labour's confidential polling leaked

Labour is crashing down and is at pretty much its lowest point since Andrew Little took over after the last election.

This trend - and the rise of New Zealand First - will be deeply concerning for Labour - this is their information and is what they are making their decisions on.

A snippet of the leaked Labour documents.
A snippet of the leaked Labour documents. Photo credit: Newshub

According to the leaked documents, the polling was done using the following methodology:

Results were based upon questions asked in the UMR Research nationwide telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders aged 18 and over.

Fieldwork was conducted from July 5 to 10, 2017, at UMR Research's national interview facility in Auckland.

The margin of error for a sample size of 750 for a 50 percent figure at the 95 percent confidence level is ± 3.6 percent.

The Labour Party said  the leak cannot have been an internal leak, as they have not yet received the report. UMR provide their reports to a variety of corporate clients, of which Labour is just one.