Lloyd Burr: Dissecting National's leadership camps

OPINION: The phones of National Party MPs will be running hot over the next 10 days as the three leadership contenders battle it out for the numbers to take the top job.

There are three confirmed camps: Camp Collins, Camp Adams and Camp Bridges, and two unconfirmed camps: Camp Joyce and Camp Mitchell.

In order to be chosen as leader, candidates must convince a majority of the 56 National Party MPs to back them in a vote - that's at least 29 supporters.

So, the question is, who has the numbers?

Our Newshub political reporters have nudged sources, staked out Opposition MPs and triangulated the data.

Based on the information we've gathered, these are our best guesses over who has support from who.

Like previous leadership battles, these numbers will change as support solidifies around leading contenders. We will continue updating this document as we get fresh information.

Team Amy Adams (20)

Amy Adams launched an impressive leadership bid when she showed up flanked by four colleagues willing to publicly demonstrate their support for her. She's socially liberal and fiscally true-blue.

Amy Adams announces her leadership bid.
Amy Adams announces her leadership bid. Photo credit: Newshub.

Supported by:

Nikki Kaye

Maggie Barry

Chris Bishop

Tim Macindoe

Michael Woodhouse

Louise Upston

Bill English

Paula Bennett

Stuart Smith

Nick Smith

Nicky Wagner

Jacque Dean

Barbara Kuriger

Jo Hayes

Ian McKelvie

Nuk Korako

Andrew Falloon

Harete Hipango

Hamish Walker

Lawrence Yule

Team Simon Bridges (18)

Simon Bridges was second out the starting blocks. He said he represents a new generation while still having the experience as minister of a raft of portfolios.

Newshub believes he has a good deal of support and is neck and neck with Amy Adams.

Simon Bridges outside Parliament.
Simon Bridges outside Parliament. Photo credit: Newshub.

Supported by:

Todd McClay

Sarah Dowie

Chris Penk

Paul Goldsmith

Jami-Lee Ross

Jonathan Coleman

Nathan Guy

David Bennett

Scott Simpson

Matt Doocey

Brett Hudson

Jonathan Young

Simon O’Connor

Andrew Bayly

Shane Reti

Alastair Scott

Denise Lee

Tim Van de Molen

Team Judith Collins (5)

Judith Collins swiftly announced she was the "strong and decisive" leader who could beat Jacinda Ardern. She's a fierce Opposition MP and loves a debate, but it looks like she'll need to knuckle down convincing her caucus if she wants their votes.

National's Judith Collins.
National's Judith Collins. Photo credit: Getty

Supported by:

Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi

Melissa Lee

Simeon Brown

Jian Yang

Parmjeet Parmar

Team Mark Mitchell (4)

Mark Mitchell told Newshub earlier this week he's considering running but hasn't yet ruled himself in or out. He's been in Australia for his daughter's surf competition. He's got the lowest profile of any contender, but if Judith Collins gets knocked out of the competition, he could pick up her votes.

National's Mark Mitchell.
National's Mark Mitchell. Photo credit: File

Supported by:

Alfred Ngaro

Erica Stanford

Todd Muller

Matt King

Team Steven Joyce (4)

On Wednesday, Steven Joyce said he was "considering" his position. He's an experienced party strategist, having run National's election campaigns since 2005. How serious his bid is anyone's question - he may be aiming to keep the front bench finance role more than he wants leadership.

Steven Joyce at Waitangi.
Steven Joyce at Waitangi. Photo credit: Getty

Supported by:

Gerry Brownlee

Chris Finlayson

Anne Tolley

David Carter

Whether the job of deputy leader will also be contested will be up to the caucus to decide. Paula Bennett wants to keep the job, but unlike other parties, National has no enshrined process for the decision, so caucus will make the decision itself. That process is confidential, Newshub was told by the party's Whip Jami-Lee Ross.

ATTENTION: MPs who have been put in the wrong camp, feel free to call Acting Political Editor Lloyd Burr or email him at lloydburr@mediaworks.co.nz to have the record corrected.