A cabinet reshuffle set down by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be good news for Kris Faafoi but questions remain about Phil Twyford's future, according to Newshub's political editor.
On Tuesday, Ardern said an announcement of a reshuffle could be expected at the end of June, after Parliament's upcoming three-week sitting block.
- Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern needs to show courage and gut KiwiBuild - Judith Collins
- Government announces fresh measures to target loan sharks
While Ardern said no substantive changes are in the works, there will be some movement, says Tova O'Brien.
"The predictions are sound in terms of Kris Faafoi - he is definitely the favourite to get a spot in Cabinet," O'Brien told The AM Show.
Faafoi is currently a minister outside of Cabinet, looking after the Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media portfolio, as well as Civil Defence, Commerce and Consumers Affairs, and Customs. He is also the Associate Minister of Immigration.
The former journalist has impressed in his roles so far, addressing loan sharks and wheel clamping, while also taking over the Broadcasting and Customs jobs after they were taken off Clare Curran and Meka Whaitiri, respectively.
"If he doesn't, I think there will be a lot of surprised faces," said O'Brien.
O'Brien said Whaitiri could also be back in some role, after strong support from some colleagues.
The future isn't clear for Phil Twyford, the Minister of Housing and Urban Development, and Minister of Transport.
O'Brien said the KiwiBuild programme, intended to build 100,000 homes in 10 years, that he oversees, has been a "humiliating destruction".
While the first annual target for KiwiBuild was originally 1000 homes, in January, Twyford said only 300 would be done by the July 1 deadline. But in May, the Government couldn't say how many houses would end up done by then.
On June 5, the KiwiBuild website said 102 houses had been completed.
Some houses under the scheme have also failed to sell and the programme is currently facing a recalibration.
"Will they split up that housing portfolio, and perhaps Twyford will just focus on KiwiBuild and fixing it, and maybe take social housing off him, or perhaps strip him of Transport," O'Brien speculated.
"There is also a spectre of an axe still hanging over Iain Lees-Galloway, the Immigration Minister, after the Karel Sroubek debacle last year."
There are also questions about how a reshuffle may impact the number of New Zealand First and Greens ministers inside and outside of Cabinet.
"It is also going to be interesting to watch to see what happens, if anything, with some of the Greens' portfolios outside of Cabinet or the New Zealand First Ministerial portfolios.
"Will any of those cabinet spots, or outside of cabinet spots, ministerial roles, will they be able to be reshuffled by this Prime Minister, or they entrenched in the deals done with the New Zealand First party and the Green Party?"
Currently, the Ministerial positions given to New Zealand First and Green MPs are laid out in their respective coalition, and confidence and supply agreements.