OPINION: They say a week is a long time in politics and if that's the case then a year is a lifetime.
National sitting at 43 percent Labour at 41 and it seems in the year of delivery we're still waiting for the goods
Go back one year and Simon Bridges was battling. He and his party were engulfed in the seedy scandal with irritant Jami-Lee Ross.
And Bridges couldn't find his way out of a paper bag could he?
Labour hadn't been found out quite yet, Ardern was promising the year of delivery but it's mid-October now and we're still waiting by the letterbox.
- Jacinda Ardern, Labour take massive tumble in new Newshub-Reid Research poll
- Poll: Jacinda Ardern's personal brand takes a bashing, Simon Bridges gets a bump and Judith Collins loses her mojo
- Tova O'Brien: PM Jacinda Ardern needed to act sooner on sexual assault allegations
Kiwibuild flop, Labour sex scandal, oh dear why did everyone who should have known something suddenly know nothing in the era of Me Too?
She navigated the Christchurch mass killings well, let's give her that.
She made her call that she rode high on the Christchurch call.
She rode high internationally looking for friends, the French said "oui, oui that is us," but the biggest name stayed home.
Trendy cool cats from Silicon Valley flew in to back her call; forgetting aviation is a major cause of climate change.
Again she flew to New York but in New Brighton no one cared nor did they in New Plymouth. People in New Windsor were sceptical as were people in New Lynn.
People had talked about Jacindamania but most couldn't really see it.
It's gone up in smoke in just two years.
As Tova O'Brien our political editor puts it it's a seismic shift. Mark his day down because it means game on and on this poll, it's so tight a hung Parliament is not out of the question no one wins.
Of course, one poll does not make a late spring election but it marks the start of what Bridges will be hoping is a trend, trends matter, it's all that matters.
As this cements Bridges as a leader I now say that Collins won't get there.
The truth is this, this Government has been found out big on talk, little to show for it.
Most of their policies have lasted as long as a sparkler on a wet Guy Fawkes Night and that's actually being very kind to them.
Duncan Garner is a host of The AM Show.