The age of Jacindamania is over. Brand Ardern has taken its biggest knock yet - and when Labour's magic weapon loses its power, the party does too.
The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll shows just how wounded Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Labour have been after the string of crises that have beset them.
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- Poll: Do you think the Government is doing a mostly good job, or a mostly bad job?
Labour was the only party to lose support in Newshub's poll. It's now on 41.6 percent - smacked down by 9.2 percent.
Most of that went to National, which is on 43.9 percent - up 6.5. This is enough to overtake Labour, and that's manna from heaven for the Nats and leader Simon Bridges.
But it's not enough to rule because the Greens are on 6.3 percent - up 0.1 percent - and keeping Labour in power.
New Zealand First got a sprinkle of Labour's lost stardust - moving up 1.2 percent to 4 percent. It's not enough to get over the 5 percent threshold into Parliament, but in a non-election year this is a good result for leader Winston Peters and co.
The ACT Party is also on the rise and deserves a special mention. It's on 1.4 percent - up 0.6 percent - the first time it's polled over 1 percent in Newshub's poll since 2014.
The Opportunities Party (TOP) and the Maori Party nudged up slightly as well. TOP is up 1 percent to 1.1 percent and the Maori Party is up 0.2 percent to 0.7 percent.
Here's how your Parliament would look
Labour can't do it alone - it gets 54 seats. But the Greens are its lifeline with eight seats - returning Ardern to power with a slim two-seat majority.
National gets 56 seats, meaning it needs buddies. But assume ACT leader David Seymour wins Epsom. Seymour - phone a friend, because that poll bump means two seats for ACT.
But even together National and Act don't have enough to govern.
This poll is a seismic political shift - we have a real political competition on our hands heading into election year.
The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 2-9 October 2019. 1000 people were surveyed, 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel.
It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.