A political commentator believes there is "no doubt" Christopher Luxon will beat current MP Jami-Lee Ross in the Botany electorate if he is given the National Party nomination.
On Thursday, the former Air New Zealand boss confirmed a move into politics, preparing to put forward his application for the National Party nomination in the Auckland electorate of Botany.
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"I look forward to the robust democratic selection process ahead with the local membership," he told Newshub.
While Botany has traditionally been a National seat, it's currently held by independent MP Ross, who left the National Party in October 2018 after a very public falling out with leader Simon Bridges.
Ross responded to Luxon's announcement by saying he was proud of his local electorate work in Botany.
"I've spent 15 years serving our community, and I'm happy to put my local credentials up for local people to make a decision on," he said in a statement.
"I've spent this year knocking on doors and asking constituents whether they want me to continue as their voice. The overwhelming response has been that they appreciate an experienced local person standing up for them. "
But according to right-leaning political commentator Matthew Hooton, Ross doesn't stand much chance if Luxon gets the nod from National.
"I think it is quite likely Christopher Luxon will win the nomination and if he wins the nomination, there is no doubt he will win the seat for National. Whoever holds it will be an MP for life if that's what they want," Hooton told Newshub.
"I think [Botany residents] will be flattered that Christopher Luxon has chosen their electorate to launch his political career."
But Hooton doesn't think Luxon's successful career at New Zealand's national carrier will guarantee he'll be a successful MP.
"Skills in business don't always translate into skills in politics, obviously they did in John Key's case," Hooton said.
"One of the problems that Luxon might encounter is he has very, very strong religious beliefs that might be out touch with where the majority of the National Party is."
Luxon - who left the Air NZ role earlier this year - has been considered a potential future party leader and replacement for Bridges who is struggling in the preferred Prime Minister polls. Ross referred to that in his statement on Thursday night.
"It's arrogant for National to believe they can fix their leadership problems by parachuting someone in who will automatically win an electorate seat.
"While Botany people know they have in me someone who sits in the middle of both parties and will work with either side to advance local issues, others see themselves racing to Wellington to advance their own personal aspirations the day after an election.
"The voters in Botany are astute and will not be taken for granted in this way."
The former Air NZ head says he has an "affinity" with the electorate.
"Botany is an electorate I have a great affinity for and connection with having grown up in the area attending local primary, intermediate and high schools," he said.
Luxon is yet to send in his application, but a National spokesperson told Newshub on Thursday night they were awaiting it.
"National is proud to run a robust local democratic selection process for our candidates. We look forward to receiving Mr Luxon's candidate application for the Botany electorate in due course."
In the 2017 election, Ross beat his Labour opponent by 12,839 votes with a 61.63 percent share of the vote.