Political poll: Labour has more than double National's support, Kiwis happy with country's direction

The Labour Party has soared sky-high in a new political poll, but the National Party's support has plummeted to a near 20-year-low.

With less than four months until September's election, a newly-released Roy Morgan poll has Labour sitting at 56.5 percent and National at 26.5 percent. The Green Party stays above the threshold with 7 percent, while Act is on 3.5 percent. New Zealand First would be out of Parliament on these numbers if it didn't win a seat as it only garnered the support of 2.5 percent of respondents.

On Roy Morgan's numbers, Labour could govern alone. 

Political poll: Labour has more than double National's support, Kiwis happy with country's direction
Photo credit: Roy Morgan.

The poll also found 76 percent of electors believed New Zealand was "heading in the right direction", down a percentage point since April, while 17.5 percent believed it was headed in the "wrong direction", up 3.5 percent.

The poll was conducted between April 27 and May 24, meaning it covered New Zealand coming out of alert level 4 lockdown and two days of Todd Muller at the head of the National Party. It surveyed 894 electors via landline and mobile phones. Of all those surveyed, 5.5 percent didn't name a party.

Muller took over as leader from Simon Bridges on May 22 after a week of unrest for National that began with the release of a Newshub-Reid Research poll.

Newshub's poll also had Labour on 56.5 percent. National was slightly higher at 30.6 percent, while the Greens were on 5.5 percent, New Zealand First at 2.7 percent and Act at 1.8 percent. 

This most recent Roy Morgan poll had the Labour/NZ First/Greens coalition with the support of 66 percent of respondents, up 1.5 percent since April and up 13 percent since January. National/Act are at 30 percent. 

On its own, National was down 13.5 percent since January, when it sat equal to Labour on 40 percent. The Greens' support has also fallen since the start of the year, when it was at 10.5 percent.

Political poll: Labour has more than double National's support, Kiwis happy with country's direction
Photo credit: Roy Morgan.

"Since January support for the Labour Party has increased 16.5 percent to a record high 56.5 percent in May - including a stunning jump of 12.5 percent in April alone," said Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine.

"The rise in support came as the effectiveness of the national lockdown implemented by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Government in late March began to show results and COVID-19 infections rates plummeted."

Levine said National's support had "collapsed" to a near 20-year-low. 

"The last time National received so little support was in December 2002 when a Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll showed the party with support of only 21.5 percent. In response to the loss of support National has now replaced Bridges with new leader Todd Muller."

On these numbers, Levine said, Ardern was set for a "crushing electoral victory".

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined slightly from a record high in April when it had a score of 163. In the May results, it was 158.5. The company said that contrasted with the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating, which "plunged" in March and April before recovering ground in May.

Political poll: Labour has more than double National's support, Kiwis happy with country's direction
Photo credit: Roy Morgan.
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