The number of new COVID-19 cases in the community is falling but testing over the weekend has dropped too - crucial factors facing the Prime Minister and her Cabinet ahead of the much-anticipated alert level decision.
Aucklanders have been under alert level 3 lockdown for almost two weeks after COVID-19 was discovered in the community, and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will announce at 3pm if the restrictions will be lifted at 11:59pm on Wednesday or be extended.
It comes as new cases of the coronavirus have been dropping off. The Ministry of Health reported just one new case in the community on Sunday linked to the cluster in south Auckland that sparked the city's lockdown on August 12.
But testing has also dropped off. Laboratories processed 7005 tests on Saturday compared to 12,265 the day before. Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield has noted before that it's common for testing to drop off over the weekend.
There were nine new cases reported in the community on Friday, six on Saturday and one on Sunday, which Auckland University Professor Shaun Hendy - who provides COVID-19 modelling for the Government - has described as "encouraging".
But he believes another week is needed, telling The AM Show on Monday: "We need to see those lower numbers for a little bit longer yet before we can have confidence to move out of level 3."
In making their decision whether to ease the restrictions in Auckland - and also if the rest of New Zealand should stay under alert level 2 - Cabinet ministers will be taking into consideration that almost all of the community cases have been linked to the south Auckland cluster.
The total number of active cases in New Zealand is 114, of which 18 are imported cases from managed isolation facilities, according to the latest Ministry of Health data released on Sunday.
There are 151 people linked to the south Auckland cluster who have been moved into the Auckland quarantine facility. This includes 82 people who have tested positive for COVID-19 and their household contacts.
There have been no deaths related to the latest coronavirus outbreak in New Zealand, but there are currently nine people with COVID-19 in hospital spread across Auckland and one in Waikato.
The Prime Minister on Friday appeared to be optimistic about the current outbreak, confirming there are no plans to move into a level 4 scenario - but she underlined the importance of being vigilant.
"There is nothing to suggest we need to change our course, and certainly nothing that suggests we need to escalate our response. But at this stage, we need to stay the course," Ardern said.
But keeping Auckland under alert level 3 for any longer could have major economic ramifications.
ASB Bank's economics team has reported that the lockdown measures will cost the economy about $440 million per week, or 0.15 percent of annual GDP.
"The more severe and long-lasting the outbreak, and the more difficult to contain it, the larger the subsequent economic disruption and likely cost," ASB senior economist Mark Smith said.
Analysis released by Dot Loves Data showed 89 percent of all Auckland businesses had collected the wage subsidy since it became available in March, and the number of Auckland businesses receiving it was significantly higher than the national average.
A survey conducted by Auckland Chamber of Commerce also found that one-in-five members - 18 percent - said one more lockdown would kill them off.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson told Newshub Nation on Saturday he has "a lot of sympathy" for those businesses struggling under the lockdown restrictions but he said a strong health response will have the best outcome for the economy.
"What we know is our ability to get on top of any resurgence is the most important thing for then getting the economy going again. The reason we put this level of restriction on is so we can get back to business as quickly as possible."
What could keep Auckland under lockdown?
While the economic impact of an extended alert level 3 will be weighing on Cabinet ministers ahead of their decision, so will the risk of another outbreak of the virus.
The Auckland Regional Public Health Service on Sunday identified bus journeys taken in the city by two separate people who had COVID-19, and officials still have not yet contacted everyone who was on those bus trips.
Cabinet will also need to consider the fact that five south Auckland churches were attended by positive cases of COVID-19, with 18 of the 222 people who attended those services still yet to be contacted, according to the latest data.
Then there was the case of COVID-19 that was not linked to the south Auckland cluster - a maintenance worker at the Rydges Hotel managed isolation facility whose case was identified through the testing of staff.
Health officials have been able to trace the man's strain of the virus to a returnee from the US, and Dr Bloomfield said evidence has shown they both used the same elevator which could be how the man picked up the virus.
ACT leader David Seymour is calling on the Government to lift Auckland's restrictions and believes an extension of them will be a failure on their part.
"If the Auckland lockdown is extended further this afternoon, it will be a fundamental Government failure and another kick in the guts for businesses," he said on Monday.
"The Government's strategy of locking down the country while it fumbles at the border, and fails to test, trace and isolate adequately, is creating huge uncertainty for households and businesses."
Watch the Prime Minister's post-Cabinet decision at 3pm on Three or stream it online at Newshub.co.nz. You can also watch Dr Bloomfield's update on COVID-19 cases at 1pm.
