Winston Peters' long career in politics is fewer than six weeks away from ending, a prominent political academic has claimed.
Peters first entered Parliament when Sir Robert Muldoon was Prime Minister, in the late 1970s, spending most of the next 40 years as an MP for National and his own party, New Zealand First.
But NZ First is at only 2 percent in the polls and looking unlikely to win any electorates.
Asked on The AM Show on Monday if NZ First would make it back in, Victoria University politics lecturer Bryce Edwards borrowed a phrase made famous by the 75-year-old.
"No," Dr Edwards told host Duncan Garner. "No, no, no."
Peters, 75, has repeatedly dismissed polls in the past. NZ First does regularly outperform its polling, but from 2 percent Dr Edwards thinks it's too long a shot - and if Peters retires, it's likely the end of the party, which once held 17 seats in Parliament.
"It's sad I think, to have lost one of those minor parties," said Dr Edwards. "We do need the minor parties, but there might be a chance for another party in the centre to come through and replace New Zealand First eventually."
A TVNZ-Colmar Brunton poll released on Sunday morning had the party's Northland hope Shane Jones in a distant third place behind the Labour and National candidates. Jones has pumped hundreds of millions of dollars from the Provincial Growth Fund into Northland, far more per head of population than any other region in the country.
Labour appears to have eaten up most of the vote, polling between 50 and 60 percent lately - and threatening the MMP era's first-ever single-party Government.
"There's never been a greater need for those minor parties to be part of Parliament," said Dr Edwards.
"New Zealand First are out for the count - we saw another poll on the weekend showing that Shane Jones can't make it back in, in Northland it seems, so they don't have that lifeline. They're only about 2 percent in the polls.
"The Greens are only just above 5 percent. ACT are doing very well - the latest poll had them on 6.5 percent. I think people will start looking at those options."
He suspects many traditional Labour voters will now start looking at the Greens, with Labour pitching National-style policies - such as the Flexi-wage scheme expansion - to keep the centre.
"This is a deliberate strategy from Labour- they're hugging the centre. They are taking on National Party policy to keep those National Party voters that have decided to shift over in the last few months. Labour's very very deliberately choosing not to put out any left-wing policy so it doesn't lose any of those traditional National voters."
At the same time, National - in disarray - appear to be bleeding votes to ACT.
"I think we're better in a democracy when you've got a clear left-wing party, a clear right-wing party and they're actually putting forward policy manifestos about changing the world - or keeping it the same - dealing with climate change, inequality.
"Instead they're just wanting to have slogans... I don't think that's going to inspire people in this election. I think we could see voter turnout go down."
The election is on September 19. Voting starts earlier that month.
