OPINION: It's Labour's election to lose from here - lose from here and Ardern won't have to resign, she'd be sacked and the party would have to go into hiding they'd be so embarrassed.
But, lucky for her, not one poll has National even doing well - let alone winning.
Thursday night's poll had Labour on 46 percent and falling just short of governing alone. I think that's entirely realistic.
No one has ever had majority support under MMP. Can Labour do what no one else has?
Tune in for the most up to date results tonight on Newshub Live at 6pm when Tova O'Brien will break down the Newshub-Reid Research latest.
Will they govern alone? I very much doubt it.
I don't think they will get enough support to. Even if they do and the Greens are also there, I expect Ardern to bring them into Government anyway. That's Ardern's style.
Consensus, reach out, have someone else to blame, keep friends for the next election.
If the polls are right I'd expect Labour and the Greens to form a coalition within weeks of the election.
For Collins anything under 35 spells disaster. My sources tell me behind the scenes it's ugly. Finger-pointing. Blame. Confusion.
The jostling for her job has begun. A whole bunch of MPs are nervous and likely to lose their jobs. Senior List MPs are pacing the room.
Finance Spokesperson Paul Goldsmith is a list MP. He could lose his job if Collins has a poor night.
Make no mistake, COVID-19 may have been deadly for a million people worldwide, but it's been Labour's saviour.
Before COVID, Labour was being talked about as a one-term Government.
They couldn't even make a kite fly, their list of failures is well documented.
But how quickly we all forget.
In came COVID and Ardern chose to front it. It catapulted her to the big stage from which she has been in command ever since.
Sure it was risky. Get it wrong, she cops it. Get it right and this weekend is the reward.
But what if all the polls have got it wrong? It's happened before, more frequently in recent years, here and overseas than ever before.
We will find out on Saturday night at 7pm. Newshub's election special on Three and streaming on Newshub.co.nz. Join me with Tova O'Brien and Patrick Gower - and a few of our surprises we have for you.
Duncan Garner hosts The AM Show.