Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has laid her job on the line if she loses on election night but National leader Judith Collins is refusing to do the same.
And here's why: The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll gives Ardern another spin as Prime Minister meaning Collins does not get her dream job.
But there are more twists to come in the phenomenal tale of Decision 2020.
The poll reveals the most up-to-date numbers before polling day, showing Ardern getting three more years running the country while Collins begins her fight to keep her job as National leader.
But it's not cut and dry. Labour holds the slimmest of a majority of 45.8 percent, bashed down by 4.3 points. On this poll, Ardern governs alone - but only just.
The 30s used to be considered the kill-zone for National but after everything it's been through, 31.1 percent will bizarrely be welcome - because it's up 1.5 points.
The Greens are the one to watch. They're holding steady on 6.3 percent down 0.2 points. The Greens are so close to being queenmaker.
ACT is still the star of the minor leagues on 7.4 percent - still rising, up 1.1 points.
But this could be the biggest story of the night: New Zealand First is on 3.5 percent, up 1.6 points. The underdog is scrapping to reach that 5 percent threshold to make it back to Parliament.
The minor parties are all - barring The Opportunities Party (TOP) - losing momentum, meaning that's all wasted vote and that's why Labour gets a majority of seats.
Labour gets 61 - the smallest majority possible, just one seat.
National gets just 41 seats. With ACT's 10 seats, it's still not enough to get the right across the line.
The Greens keep their 8 seats.
Newshub's poll results
- Labour - 45.8 percent
- National - 31.1 percent
- ACT - 7.4 percent
- Greens - 6.3 percent
- NZ First - 3.5 percent
- New Conservative - 1.7 percent
- TOP - 1.3 percent
- Maori Party - 0.6 percent
- Advance NZ - 0.3 percent
The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 8-15 October 2020, and 1000 people were surveyed - 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
