National Party looking at rolling Collins 'next year' - Tova O'Brien

The latest Newshub Reid Research Poll is bad news for Judith Collins - and one expert says it's only a matter of time until she's rolled as National leader.

Only 27.1 percent believe Collins is performing well - a 0.8 percent drop.

And David Seymour has come out on top, overtaking Collins for preferred Prime Minister.

Newshub political editor Tova O'Brien said the latest numbers are more bad news for Collins, with sources indicating it's a matter of when she's rolled - not if.

"They're looking at next year," she told The AM Show on Monday when asked whether Collins would be ousted as leader.

She added the "murmuring" in the lead-up to the National Party conference this weekend will be "pretty telling".

"The talk will come - I don't know if the action will. There are two schools of thought - one is Christopher Luxon moves in now and I don't think team Luxon wants that -  they want him mid next year but some want him to go now so there's another new guard who swoops in mid next year."

Ever since the former Air New Zealand chief executive announced his intentions to become an MP prior to the 2020 election, there has been speculation he's gunning to be leader - rumors Luxon has continuously denied.

But it's not just the National party that should be worried. Newshub's latest poll shows a significant performance fall for Jacinda Ardern - the number of people who think she's performing well has plummeted 8.9 percentage points to 60.7 percent.

O'Brien says it's critical Ardern doesn't let "the rot set in" if she wants to remain in power.

"This year you look at the issues around housing, mental health, skilled migrants, money for the Mongrel Mob….what we're seeing is a broad base of voters being turned off and flocking to Act, National and the Green Party."