The crisis on the Ukrainian border is one of the "most significant security challenges and risks to international peace" since the end of the Cold War, New Zealand's Foreign Affairs and Trade Secretary has warned.
Speaking to Parliament's Foriegn Affairs, Defence and Trade Select Committee on Thursday morning, Chris Seed, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) chief executive, said there was "no question" about the seriousness of tensions in eastern Europe.
"There is no question in our mind that this is one of the most significant security challenges and risks to international peace and security since the end of the Cold War," he told MPs after a question about the situation from National's Gerry Brownlee.
New Zealand has consistently called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis and Seed noted Aotearoa has regularly been engaging with other countries about it, including in conversations between Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the President of the European Commission, as well as between Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta and her United Kingdom, Australian and Ukrainian counterparts.
"There is a clear sense that the situation is of great concern. Especially as a small state, we cannot abide the idea that large countries assert their interest by invading small ones or indeed, any country invading any other," Seed said.
"We think that at its heart this is about sovereignty and self determination. We've got no doubt that war in Europe, of any sort, is of no benefit to New Zealand."
If there was conflict between Ukraine and Russia - which Seed noted is a petro-state and a core part of the international energy system - he said there will almost certainly be higher oil prices.
"It clearly already means impact on international share markets. All of those things will be second order consequences for New Zealand. They'll wash through our our supply chains, they'll impact on our ability to trade. We will be in the same boat as many other countries and the world."
In his opening remarks to the committee, Seed said "it is a tough time in the world for small states".
"We're living in a complex, complicated and seemingly increasingly fragmented world. Lots of threats to rights and freedoms and lots of challenges to democracy and lots of challenges to the rules-based system, which has benefited us so greatly for so long," he said.
"Protectionist pressures in the economic sense are both real and increasing. Global institutions are as stressed as the natural environment and hence our sort of focus as a ministry on things like oceans and climate and biodiversity."
Around 150,000 Russian soldiers have amassed near the Ukrainian border in recent months creating fears Moscow will order an invasion if Western countries don't agree to a set of security guarantees wanted by Vladimir Putin, including that NATO won't admit Ukraine to the military alliance.
Despite a number of meetings between officials from the United States, European nations and Russia, the countries have so far been unable to find a way forward out of the crisis, the most concerning of the post-Cold War era.
Western nations have threatened Russia with unprecedented sanctions if it does invade Ukraine. New Zealand, however, is constrained in the action it can take due to the lack of an autonomous sanctions regime. This means the Government has fewer options to act without UN approval, something unlikely to happen due to Russia's veto powers.
Brownlee on Thursday asked Seed what New Zealand could do to respond if Russia was to cross into Ukraine.
"It seems to me there's about three areas where the Government, without an autonomous sanctions regime, is able to take take measures," Seed replied.
"One relates to diplomatic engagement and more official engagement, you can send signals and messages [in a] very traditional way about how we think about any action a state has taken, by the way in which we conduct our diplomacy.
"Secondly, we have, of course, the ability to determine who crosses our border. So essentially, there are a range of immigration levers that would be open to this Government as previous governments have used.
"We have some other measures around things like export controls and the like, where we have regulatory mechanisms where we could look at the sort of end destination of particular goods. So there's definitely a range of options that would be available to the Government."
Brownlee last year attempted to introduce an autonomous sanctions regime - which would give New Zealand the power to impose a wider range of sanctions without approval from the UN Security Council. His Member's Bill failed, however, with Labour, the Greens and Te Paati Māori voting against it.
Mahuta, a Labour MP, said at the time that the Bill wasn't up to standard and that New Zealand was more interested in multilateral action and using diplomatic means to influence change. She wouldn't, however, rule out some similar regime in the future.
Seed told the committee that MFAT continues to engage with the Government about "the pros and cons" of such a regime.
"We've been very clear to government about the consequences if you like or some of the challenges of having an autonomous sanctions regime because you need to build quite a significant piece of architecture to prosecute it.
"You need to maintain an up-to date-list, your decisions are subject to rule of law to being invigilated by the courts. It requires a significant piece of bureaucratic architecture and resourcing.
"Those discussions or those pieces of information had been put to governments in various formations and I know that it remains a continuing sort of matter of discussion between ministers."
In a statement on Wednesday, the Russian Embassy in New Zealand said Russia was concerned "about the international disinformation campaign waged against her in the West". It maintains Russia is "not going to attack anyone".
"Talks about a soon-to-begin imminent war are provocative and Russia has refuted such accusations at all levels. We hope that NATO countries will stop fueling the conflict in Eastern Ukraine and abstain from interfering in the domestic affairs of that country."
There were reports on Tuesday that Russia was pulling back some of its troops from the border following military exercises there, but the US said on Thursday there was no evidence of any pullback.
"We continue to see critical units moving toward the border, not away from the border," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
New Zealand on Saturday advised Kiwis in Ukraine to leave the country immediately.
"In response to heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the New Zealand Government is advising New Zealanders in the Ukraine to leave immediately while there are commercial flights able to get them home," Mahuta said
"Aotearoa New Zealand does not have diplomatic representation in Ukraine and the government's ability to provide consular assistance to New Zealanders in Ukraine is therefore very limited."
New Zealand has previously directly raised concerns with Moscow about its actions on the Ukrainian border, including in a meeting between our Ambassador to Russia and senior Russian Foreign Ministry officials.
In late January, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said New Zealand would be closely watching the situation and would continue to stress the need for de-escalation.
