Labour's David Parker doesn't expect a snap election to be called, but National's Nicola Willis says "bring it on".
The idea of a snap election was raised this week by former ACT leader Richard Prebble in an NZ Herald column. He suggested Kiwis will be unhappy with the Government when its upcoming $27-a-week cost of living payments end in October.
Inflation is likely to still be high at the end of the year, even if it has peaked - the Reserve Bank doesn't believe it will return to the target range until 2024 - meaning taking away the payments could hurt, Prebble submitted.
"But deciding to continue the income support, having just 18 per cent of the population supporting the other 82 per cent, will shred whatever economic credibility Labour has," he also wrote.
Prebble, who was a Labour MP until the early 1990s, said the only way to avoid having to either cancel or extend the payments, would be for Labour "to find an excuse to call a snap election".
Snap elections are very uncommon in New Zealand.
The most famous is the 1984 election when then-Prime Minister Robert Muldoon announced an election would be held in just a month. He faced dissent within his ranks, putting National's majority in doubt, and also an increasingly popular Labour party.
Known as the 'schnapps election' on account of Muldoon appearing drunk when he announced it, National would go on to lose 10 seats and the ability to govern.
So could another snap election be coming New Zealand's way?
It's not something Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern or her ministerial team have brought up. The Prime Minister is responsible for the timing of elections, with the next one not expected until the second half of 2023.
In 2019, after then-National leader Simon Bridges said he would "welcome" a snap election due to allegations against Labour's coalition partner New Zealand First, Ardern is reported as saying "I'm not Rob Muldoon".
Labour also currently commands a strong majority in the House with no signs of internal division like what Muldoon was contending with. Labour has 65 seats - four more than what's required for a majority - the most in the MMP era.
But Labour is falling in the polls. A Newshub Reid-Research poll in May showed its vote down 6.1 points to 38.2 percent, while National was up 9.2 to 40.5 percent.
Despite that, the centre-left and centre-right blocs would need Te Pāti Māori's support to govern on those numbers. That means, on that poll, a path to power is still viable for Labour.
More recent polls show Labour's vote has fallen further.
Asked on AM on Friday morning what the chances were of a snap election, Parker, one of Labour's senior ministers, laughed.
"I don't think it'll happen," he said. "We have a three-year mandate."
"We have a strong electoral mandate. We have got a lot we are doing. Health reforms, resource management reform. A lot of changes afoot. We won't be finished by then."
But National deputy leader Willis says "bring it on".
"They think they might lose. I think that's the problem… I have a lot of New Zealanders come up to me and they say, 'the sooner you can change the Government the better Nicola, get on with it'.
"I can't wait. We want to have those levers of government. We want to put in those search powers to the police, give them those tools that they need, we want to get on top of the cost of living, we want to grow this economy, we want to give people prosperity, more choices."
Finance Minister Grant Robertson announced at May's Budget that Kiwis who earnt $70,000 or less in the last tax year and who aren't eligible for the Winter Energy Payment will receive the $350 cost of living payment from August at a rate of about $27 per week for three months.
It was described by the minister as a way to support low- and middle-income New Zealanders who weren't assisted by the Government's April 1 increases to benefits, tax credits and the minimum wage.
But it's not the only cost of living measure the Government has introduced. It's also temporarily cut fuel duty tax, road user charges and public transport fares. Legislation has also been introduced in the House with the intent of growing more competition in the supermarket sector.
While inflation was recorded at a 30-year-high in March, both the Reserve Bank and Treasury expect it to ease over the coming years.
The Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) forecast it to drop to 5.2 percent in 2023, 3.6 percent in 2024, 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.2 percent in 2026. The RBNZ is more optimistic, expecting it to return to the 1 to 3 percent target range by 2024.
BEFU said inflation was the result of strong domestic demand, as well as global factors like supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine
