GDP reaction: ACT says GDP jump due to Kiwis' 'heroic efforts', not Govt, National also not giving Labour credit

The ACT Party says the quarterly growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded on Thursday is down to the "heroic efforts" of Kiwi businesspeople in the face of Labour's "best efforts to strange" the economy.

National's also not giving the Government any credit for the lift, instead focusing on low annual growth.

But the Finance Minister is selling the data as highlighting how the Government's "economic plan is working in what continues to be an extremely challenging global environment". 

"We are continuing to focus on lifting New Zealanders up and giving them greater economic security. We are investing in supporting businesses to grow jobs and wages which will make families and our economy stronger," Grant Robertson said.

StatsNZ on Thursday morning revealed there was a 1.7 percent lift in GDP during the second quarter of 2022. That meant a technical recession - two consecutive months of negative growth - was avoided after a 0.2 percent contraction during the first quarter of the year. 

Most economists had been predicting a slight lift in GDP as the time period covers the reopening of New Zealand's border as well as a scaling back of COVID-19 restrictions following the first Omicron wave. The 1.7 percent figure came in close to the Reserve Bank's expected 1.8 percent increase.

But neither ACT nor National were praising the Government for the result.

"Today's growth in GDP is a testament to the hard work of Kiwi businesspeople, who through sheer will and determination have managed a positive result in spite of Labour's policies that have restricted production and starved them of workers," said ACT leader David Seymour.

The Epsom MP praised the "heroic efforts" of businesses and said Kiwis were taking on additional shifts "to keep the economy going in spite of Labour's best efforts to strangle it of labour at the border and maintain zombie COVID policies". 

ACT has previously advocated for the Government dumping the labour market test - which requires employers here in New Zealand to attempt to employ Kiwis before looking offshore - and for more occupations to be added to the fast-track residency list. The party also previously called for COVID rules to be scrapped - most of which were on Monday.

"Nobody believes that the Labour can take the credit for this," Seymour said. "Grant Robertson can try as hard as he likes, but the reality is he did nothing to increase the milk price to world record levels in June, and he didn't help the business owners who worked themselves to the bone to keep going."

ACT leader David Seymour.
ACT leader David Seymour. Photo credit: Getty Images.

Nicola Willis, National's finance spokesperson, focused her remarks on annual GDP growth, which was 1 percent over the year to June 2022. 

Last quarter, when annual growth in the year to March 2022 was 4.9 percent, Willis' statement was about the 0.2 percent quarterly contraction. 

"Annual growth is much lower than Australia and many of the other countries New Zealand typically measures itself against," Willis said.

While Willis acknowledged New Zealand has "so far" avoided a recession, the "weak growth" comes amid sky-high inflation and food prices rising 8.3 percent in the year to August 31.

National also wants the Government to fix bottlenecks in the economy, such as by addressing worker shortages it says "failed immigration settings" are not helping. 

"New Zealand needs a real economic plan which will unleash enterprise and lift wages. Labour’s only response to current economic woes is to spend, spend, spend – and increase taxes to pay for it."

The Finance Minister, however, is upbeat. He said the 1.7 percent quarterly figure showed the economy had "rebounded strongly" and that "New Zealand is well placed to meet the next set of challenges confronting the global economy".

"This is a positive result and underlines the resilience of the economy. Our strong growth in the June quarter comes at a time the IMF estimated that global output shrank."

Robertson said the economy is 5 percent larger than it was pre-pandemic, meaning New Zealand is "well placed to hit the ground running" as COVID-19 restrictions are removed. 

"New Zealand is well positioned to respond to the challenges ahead. The global economic outlook is being revised downwards as high inflation, the war in Ukraine and ongoing pandemic-related disruptions continue to affect the countries we trade with."

Finance Minister Grant Robertson.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson. Photo credit: Newshub.

Echoing comments he made in a business speech on Thursday morning, the minister said New Zealand is "not immune to what happens beyond our borders", but there is cause for optimism. 

"We produce goods and services that the world demands and our ongoing investment in a low carbon future reduces our reliance on volatile global energy markets and attracts people and investment."

ASB senior economist Mark Smith said recent GDP figures "have proved to be mostly noise rather than economic signal", but there is more "substance" behind Thursday's data. 

"Further volatility lies ahead as the NZ economy continues to transition back towards pre-COVID-19 norms, with how this occurs an added uncertainty," he said.

"The NZ economy is unlikely to repeat its Q2 heroics, but underlying base momentum should remain, testament to the underlying resilience of the NZ economy and the support factors in the economy."

ANZ economist Miles Workman said it had been a difficult quarter to predict due to "a lot of noisy moving parts". 

"Lingering Omicron disruption, resource scarcity (particularly labour); quirky seasonality, loosening border restrictions; the end of domestic petrol refining; the impact of rising interest rates; and ongoing COVIDinduced measurement difficulties," she said.  

"In the end, all of the above netted out as stronger growth than expected, but this noise lowers the bar for weaker quarterly growth as we head into summer."

In his earlier speech, Robertson acknowledged that inflation had caused a "significant cost of living crisis" for New Zealanders. The Government has tried to help Kiwis through that through its cost of living payment, cutting fuel taxes and halving public transport fares.